Some weeks ago, I spoke on how the fate of Detroit and the No-longer-so-big Three was important to us, as they are a key part of the international economy and North America’s employment community. While it appears our government is willing to donate a few billion to the cause if the Americans do, and they are mulling just that south of the border, the beginning of the unravelling of the North American auto industry has started to begin.
On Friday of last week, General Motors announced that they would be shutting down 21 plants in the US, and all 3 in Ontario, for a period of one month to six weeks starting in January. The CAW announced that it was likely Ford and Chrysler would be taking similar measures. Unfortunately, today Chrysler announced that they would be idling all of their North American plants for one month, starting tomorrow morning. This does not bode well for Southern Ontario. As I’ve already said, the auto industry employs a very large number of people, and a lot of people rely on North American cars to get around. While even the worst case scenario probably sees the big three being bought out or merging in some fashion, who knows how the new owners will treat existing customers.
But this shutdown has a far more human face, that of thousands of employees that have just been told that they are going to have a much leaner Christmas season. Six weeks on EI will not do much to ease debt-loads, even with the GM promise of topping this up so they will have 60% of their usual salaries. Also, this announcement is likely not going to do much to boost public confidence in the companies, which in turn will affect the stock prices, and probably in a continuing downward trend.
Finally, I really hate being doom and gloom better than half the time. Unfortunately, everything that seems to going on “out there” seems to be negative. Staggered shutdowns are often the sign of a company in its death throes. I really hope the Big Three can restructure their business model and bounce back from this as improved companies, I feel that their failure would have consequences that we can barely imagine.
By the way, I have a few things to talk about over the next few days, so stay tuned, then expect an absense other than wishing everyone a happy new years...
Friday, December 19, 2008
Friday, December 12, 2008
OC Transpo Mess
Well, I guess it is no surprise that as a transit user in Ottawa, I am blogging about the current OC Transpo strike. If OCTranspo ridership numbers are to be believed, it is affected 350,000 of us each and every day. The city has made an offer, and the union has refused. So now we have a strike.
Apparently, the key issue at hand has nothing to do with money (even though the union has made it very clear that the least they will accept is 3% per year), but with the ability to schedule their own shifts. At this time, drivers can pick their own schedules to an extent, and according to an audit done on the process, end up driving buses empty, backhauling them like empty tractor trailers to the garage. The city wants to take control, in order to have drivers waiting at the end points of the runs to take over the bus.
I’m not going to argue whether or not the contract is fair, other than to say that a prolonged strike doesn’t benefit anyone.
The timing on the strike, on the other hand, is just mean spirited. The city of Ottawa does not turn a profit on OCTranspo, so the strike hurts the members of the public who take transit, but not the city itself. In fact, with all of the complaining going on about the city budget, the city is probably eager to redirect the nearly 1 million dollars PER DAY that OCTranspo consumes (granted, about 50% of that is offset by the fares, but we’re still talking about a considerable sum). So that leaves the little people, the actual riders, holding the very short end of the stick.
It is winter. It is nearing Christmas. Two very good reasons to choose now to strike for “maximum impact”. Two very good reasons to have either gone on strike before or after if you actually care about your riders, like the union claims to. They say this strike is about respect, and they have shown next to none to the public. The only people they are affecting are those who don’t have any control over their salaries at all. Also, to have a city of nearly 1 million angry at you will not help at the negotiating table.
In the last few days, I’ve heard some real gems. Probably the most noteable being that since this is a strike against the public, the little people, the little people should reciprocate. I read a very long, very well thought out forum post that said that business owners that are impacted by this, either through employees not being able to make it in, or through reduced customers, to put up signs saying they reserve the right to refuse service to the union members. The morality and legality of such a move is highly questionable, but I do understand the frustration.
I now have a 45 minute walk to work, and I am one of the “lucky” ones who live close enough for that to even be possible. It was 30 minutes in the summer, but snow is…well, snow. Many have to drastically alter their work schedules, hitch rides, take expensive taxis, or just not show up at all. Not everyone is lucky enough to have a flexible employer either. The city has done some minor things to help. They have opened SOME of the bus lanes to regular traffic, relaxed parking restrictions on spots that normally are only 1, 2 or 3 hour to all day, and advised the public to bicycle (in the snow) to work. I could drive and try to find street parking near Tunney’s, but will hold out until the cold becomes unbearable. There are people commuting from much further away that could make use of those spots. I’m only a few kilometres up the road back to Westboro. The city should bear its share of blame for the plight we’re in. Bicycle to work? On a week when we just had 30cm of snow? You must be kidding. I’m sloughing my way up one of their “extensive bike paths and trails” on foot, and cannot imagine trying to trek it on a bike. However, I have seen a few daredevils out there, and maybe after I’ve tired of losing an extra hour and a half each day walking, I may risk it myself.
Me? I’m doing fine. I’m a little mad over the lost time, and if I get sick, many of you know I will turn into a big baby, but the walk will help my get in shape plan, and I was walking roughly half that distance each day voluntarily in any case. Others aren’t doing nearly as well, and I hope that they manage to make the best of this fiasco that the union and city have put us in.
The union? I’m worried for them. Many of them are hard working folks, and this mess is proof that they are important to our city, but the public certainly isn’t on their side. They are highly paid, with starting salary for a bus driver in this city at $50,000, a very decent number. Also, Canada is diving into the beginning of a recession that the banks are finally admitting exists. To be off work for a month (as the last strike lasted 24 days) will hit the pocket book hard, especially around the holiday season. And they just may be off work for a month, if they don’t go back to the tables soon. School is about to finish for the season. Many take holidays over the Christmas season, and if they are still on strike on December 19th, a great number could hardly care less if they are back on the job until after January 5th.
I hope this situation ends soon, for all parties involved. The last thing public transit needs is a massive drop in riders. Apparently, after the 1996 strike, the number of riders dropped so drastically that they had to have the bus fare reduced to free for the first week back on the job, and 1 dollar for a time afterwards. However, if they transit company cannot be counted on to be running during the coldest months of the year, perhaps it is best not to use fair weather only transit systems.
Who knows, maybe I and many others will buy some used cross country skis and ski up the empty transitways to work...that would be an iconic Canadian moment that the rest of the world would look at and smile...
Apparently, the key issue at hand has nothing to do with money (even though the union has made it very clear that the least they will accept is 3% per year), but with the ability to schedule their own shifts. At this time, drivers can pick their own schedules to an extent, and according to an audit done on the process, end up driving buses empty, backhauling them like empty tractor trailers to the garage. The city wants to take control, in order to have drivers waiting at the end points of the runs to take over the bus.
I’m not going to argue whether or not the contract is fair, other than to say that a prolonged strike doesn’t benefit anyone.
The timing on the strike, on the other hand, is just mean spirited. The city of Ottawa does not turn a profit on OCTranspo, so the strike hurts the members of the public who take transit, but not the city itself. In fact, with all of the complaining going on about the city budget, the city is probably eager to redirect the nearly 1 million dollars PER DAY that OCTranspo consumes (granted, about 50% of that is offset by the fares, but we’re still talking about a considerable sum). So that leaves the little people, the actual riders, holding the very short end of the stick.
It is winter. It is nearing Christmas. Two very good reasons to choose now to strike for “maximum impact”. Two very good reasons to have either gone on strike before or after if you actually care about your riders, like the union claims to. They say this strike is about respect, and they have shown next to none to the public. The only people they are affecting are those who don’t have any control over their salaries at all. Also, to have a city of nearly 1 million angry at you will not help at the negotiating table.
In the last few days, I’ve heard some real gems. Probably the most noteable being that since this is a strike against the public, the little people, the little people should reciprocate. I read a very long, very well thought out forum post that said that business owners that are impacted by this, either through employees not being able to make it in, or through reduced customers, to put up signs saying they reserve the right to refuse service to the union members. The morality and legality of such a move is highly questionable, but I do understand the frustration.
I now have a 45 minute walk to work, and I am one of the “lucky” ones who live close enough for that to even be possible. It was 30 minutes in the summer, but snow is…well, snow. Many have to drastically alter their work schedules, hitch rides, take expensive taxis, or just not show up at all. Not everyone is lucky enough to have a flexible employer either. The city has done some minor things to help. They have opened SOME of the bus lanes to regular traffic, relaxed parking restrictions on spots that normally are only 1, 2 or 3 hour to all day, and advised the public to bicycle (in the snow) to work. I could drive and try to find street parking near Tunney’s, but will hold out until the cold becomes unbearable. There are people commuting from much further away that could make use of those spots. I’m only a few kilometres up the road back to Westboro. The city should bear its share of blame for the plight we’re in. Bicycle to work? On a week when we just had 30cm of snow? You must be kidding. I’m sloughing my way up one of their “extensive bike paths and trails” on foot, and cannot imagine trying to trek it on a bike. However, I have seen a few daredevils out there, and maybe after I’ve tired of losing an extra hour and a half each day walking, I may risk it myself.
Me? I’m doing fine. I’m a little mad over the lost time, and if I get sick, many of you know I will turn into a big baby, but the walk will help my get in shape plan, and I was walking roughly half that distance each day voluntarily in any case. Others aren’t doing nearly as well, and I hope that they manage to make the best of this fiasco that the union and city have put us in.
The union? I’m worried for them. Many of them are hard working folks, and this mess is proof that they are important to our city, but the public certainly isn’t on their side. They are highly paid, with starting salary for a bus driver in this city at $50,000, a very decent number. Also, Canada is diving into the beginning of a recession that the banks are finally admitting exists. To be off work for a month (as the last strike lasted 24 days) will hit the pocket book hard, especially around the holiday season. And they just may be off work for a month, if they don’t go back to the tables soon. School is about to finish for the season. Many take holidays over the Christmas season, and if they are still on strike on December 19th, a great number could hardly care less if they are back on the job until after January 5th.
I hope this situation ends soon, for all parties involved. The last thing public transit needs is a massive drop in riders. Apparently, after the 1996 strike, the number of riders dropped so drastically that they had to have the bus fare reduced to free for the first week back on the job, and 1 dollar for a time afterwards. However, if they transit company cannot be counted on to be running during the coldest months of the year, perhaps it is best not to use fair weather only transit systems.
Who knows, maybe I and many others will buy some used cross country skis and ski up the empty transitways to work...that would be an iconic Canadian moment that the rest of the world would look at and smile...
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Well, I guess it IS Thursday
I had a blog all ready to go tonight, honest. Something about the effects of deflation and inflation on our economy. Guess that'll be tomorrow.
I went to a tech conference this evening after work. Saw all sorts of the latest technology, wasn't half bad. It certainly kept me busy and out of trouble. Saw a USB key that you could run over with a bobcat and it would still work. It also had a bonafide self destruct device in it that could be triggered remotely. Very James Bond.
Speaking of, I'm tempted to go check that movie out sometime in the near future. Despite my lackluster interest in the last film, I am curious to how this one has turned out.
More tomorrow...
I went to a tech conference this evening after work. Saw all sorts of the latest technology, wasn't half bad. It certainly kept me busy and out of trouble. Saw a USB key that you could run over with a bobcat and it would still work. It also had a bonafide self destruct device in it that could be triggered remotely. Very James Bond.
Speaking of, I'm tempted to go check that movie out sometime in the near future. Despite my lackluster interest in the last film, I am curious to how this one has turned out.
More tomorrow...
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Why Detroit’s Success or Failure Affects All of Us (You too, import drivers!)
I know some people who are salivating at the concept of the three domestic auto companies folding into bankruptcy. These are people perhaps once burnt by the purchase of a problem-stricken Ford Pinto, or “brand fanatics” of the type I’ve only seen in the high-tech field as well (obsessive devotion to Sony or Apple comes to mind). They believe that nothing the American manufacturers can do is right, nothing the import companies can do is wrong, and are quite unwilling to look at or listen to evidence to the contrary.
Without a bailout, GM and Chrysler look like they are certainly headed into bankruptcy. Ford seems to have slightly better financials, but may not be much further behind. This has been due to an abysmal year in sales, first caused by the run-up in fuel prices and the abandonment of the SUV market by consumers, and now by the US recession, which is hitting all auto manufacturers quite hard. The US market was already in bad shape, but imports are starting to take a hit, with Mercedes recently announcing that it was going to have a one month halt on production on certain models, because they have too much inventory.
Let us quickly look at what could happen if the “Big 3” become no more. I’m going to disregard the affect on the companies’ employees and suppliers, as drastic as they are, THAT part is being well covered in the news. I will start with an anecdote from personal experience.
Once, I had a boss who seemed to be a little bit of a brand fanatic. Computers always had to be the same brand, and cars had to be selected from a pool of one or two brands that he had settled on being “the best”. While giving him a lift to the shop to pick up his car from maintenance, he noted that my “Ford” was relatively high mileage. At the time I had a little over 200,000 kilometres on my Mercury Cougar. I said that I would be driving my Mercury until the wheels fell off, as I couldn’t afford an import, and had no interest in the current round of “affordable” domestics, at the time the Cobalt, Pursuit, Focus, or….nothing, as Chrysler had discontinued the SX 2.0 and had yet to introduce the Avenger to replace it. He recommended I look into the Mazda 3, which was on his short list of brands approved for intelligent purchasers’ consumption. I shrugged it off, mumbling something about not being overly fond of the 3’s looks either.
He wasn’t aware of it, and I thought it wise not to point it out, but at the time (indeed, until some time in the very near future), Mazda was and is Ford. The Mazda 3 IS a Ford Focus, with a different shell. They are the same platform. Mazda is more than 33% owned by Ford, which is the largest share, and the controlling interest in the company. Mazda 6’s are built in a partnership plant in Michigan, which is 50% owned by Ford. They are built alongside the Ford Mustang, in fact built on the same assembly line that used to build the Mercury Cougar, and before that the Ford Probe/Mazda MX-6 (both the same car as well). Ford is currently trying to sell their stake in Mazda to help their capital situation, but it is a situation that proves how much a spider web the domestic and import market has become.
Here’s a rundown of companies that would somehow be affected by the bankruptcy of the “Big 3” that most would not expect:
Mazda is already being affected. Ford’s stake will be sold, and while they have promised that they will continue to share facilities and development work, if Ford collapses, that may go as well. Fanatics will say that Mazda helps Ford, and not vice versa, but remember that the 3 IS a Ford Focus, not the other way around, and it replaced the final generation Protogé, a car that was very far from perfect.
Volvo is owned by Ford. They are currently in negotiations to possibly sell this division to a car company in China.
Ford has already sold Jaguar and Land Rover to Tata Motors in India. It will remain to be seen whether or not quality suffers from these desperate moves. Ford also hacked off its Aston Martin arm a little while ago.
The “GM Lineup” is quite extensive. Opel, Vauxhall, Daewoo, Saab are all GM companies, as are a few others. General Motors is still the WORLD’S largest automaker measured by sales. That’s a fact, no matter what a Honda or Toyota fan will tell you. Speaking of Toyota, GM and Toyota have long had agreements and co-operation on development costs of vehicles. The Toyota Matrix/Pontiac Vibe is one example that comes to mind.
The only Chrysler product that people may not associate with Chrysler is Jeep.
So that’s what would happen to some other companies, names many probably didn’t realize were part of the Big 3. What else could happen in bankruptcy? Parts. Millions of people are driving Big 3 cars worldwide. Bankruptcy could affect the availability of parts for cars that are still in service. While some other company would likely rush in to buy the remainder of the US companies, they may not have the same commitment or obligation to supplying parts for older models. So millions of people with their Cavaliers, Escorts, Neons, and so on may be forced to shelling out for a new car, even if they can’t afford it. A side effect of this will be an increase in ridership on city buses. At least every dark cloud has some silver lining.
Finally, in some defense of Detroit, they don’t make a bad product, it is a bit of a misconception. Most modern domestic cars are very reliable, and the smaller ones have excellent fuel consumption ratings for their class. I believe the Malibu recently beat out the Camry in several reviews, and those cars are neck in neck for gas mileage. Not like the gas guzzling Accords, Altimas and so on are much better on fuel. The Big 3’s reputation came from decades of an act that took forever to clean up, but they seem to have done so. If you don’t buy bottom of the line, build quality seems quite solid as well. Jetta’s feel just as “plasticky” and “cheap” as the Big 3’s offerings, and I have personally seen much newer examples (seen two) in the shop far more often with electrical problems than any domestic car I have personally owned or heard about through a friend. The Big 3’s problem was catering to the SUV craze, which the North American culture DEMANDED, for the longest time. They built big gas guzzling trucks and vans to be used by yuppies carting their families around, when station wagons or large sedans would have made much more sense. Also, they have severe management issues and contracts and pensions that are difficult to keep up with. The heart of the financial problems of the Big 3 is probably their high rate of pay, benefit packages, and retirement plans. With problems like those, they may never be successful in the long term.
I’m not saying Detroit deserves a bailout. Even if they get one, I hope management has to face the music and have their huge salaries slashed to nothing like the CEO of Chrysler in the 80s-that would be some fair. What I am saying is the loss of the Big 3 would have an effect on millions of people. The employees, the suppliers and their employees, the average people driving their cars, even those buying imports. Even if you buy Hondas or Hyundais, what do you think will happen when the lower cost competition is gone. Because like it or not, Cobalts and Avengers and Focuses keep the cost of Civics and Accents and Sentras down.
And how's that "Ford" doing, nearly 3 years later? 270,000 kilometres and still going strong, with not a rattle in the frame.
Without a bailout, GM and Chrysler look like they are certainly headed into bankruptcy. Ford seems to have slightly better financials, but may not be much further behind. This has been due to an abysmal year in sales, first caused by the run-up in fuel prices and the abandonment of the SUV market by consumers, and now by the US recession, which is hitting all auto manufacturers quite hard. The US market was already in bad shape, but imports are starting to take a hit, with Mercedes recently announcing that it was going to have a one month halt on production on certain models, because they have too much inventory.
Let us quickly look at what could happen if the “Big 3” become no more. I’m going to disregard the affect on the companies’ employees and suppliers, as drastic as they are, THAT part is being well covered in the news. I will start with an anecdote from personal experience.
Once, I had a boss who seemed to be a little bit of a brand fanatic. Computers always had to be the same brand, and cars had to be selected from a pool of one or two brands that he had settled on being “the best”. While giving him a lift to the shop to pick up his car from maintenance, he noted that my “Ford” was relatively high mileage. At the time I had a little over 200,000 kilometres on my Mercury Cougar. I said that I would be driving my Mercury until the wheels fell off, as I couldn’t afford an import, and had no interest in the current round of “affordable” domestics, at the time the Cobalt, Pursuit, Focus, or….nothing, as Chrysler had discontinued the SX 2.0 and had yet to introduce the Avenger to replace it. He recommended I look into the Mazda 3, which was on his short list of brands approved for intelligent purchasers’ consumption. I shrugged it off, mumbling something about not being overly fond of the 3’s looks either.
He wasn’t aware of it, and I thought it wise not to point it out, but at the time (indeed, until some time in the very near future), Mazda was and is Ford. The Mazda 3 IS a Ford Focus, with a different shell. They are the same platform. Mazda is more than 33% owned by Ford, which is the largest share, and the controlling interest in the company. Mazda 6’s are built in a partnership plant in Michigan, which is 50% owned by Ford. They are built alongside the Ford Mustang, in fact built on the same assembly line that used to build the Mercury Cougar, and before that the Ford Probe/Mazda MX-6 (both the same car as well). Ford is currently trying to sell their stake in Mazda to help their capital situation, but it is a situation that proves how much a spider web the domestic and import market has become.
Here’s a rundown of companies that would somehow be affected by the bankruptcy of the “Big 3” that most would not expect:
Mazda is already being affected. Ford’s stake will be sold, and while they have promised that they will continue to share facilities and development work, if Ford collapses, that may go as well. Fanatics will say that Mazda helps Ford, and not vice versa, but remember that the 3 IS a Ford Focus, not the other way around, and it replaced the final generation Protogé, a car that was very far from perfect.
Volvo is owned by Ford. They are currently in negotiations to possibly sell this division to a car company in China.
Ford has already sold Jaguar and Land Rover to Tata Motors in India. It will remain to be seen whether or not quality suffers from these desperate moves. Ford also hacked off its Aston Martin arm a little while ago.
The “GM Lineup” is quite extensive. Opel, Vauxhall, Daewoo, Saab are all GM companies, as are a few others. General Motors is still the WORLD’S largest automaker measured by sales. That’s a fact, no matter what a Honda or Toyota fan will tell you. Speaking of Toyota, GM and Toyota have long had agreements and co-operation on development costs of vehicles. The Toyota Matrix/Pontiac Vibe is one example that comes to mind.
The only Chrysler product that people may not associate with Chrysler is Jeep.
So that’s what would happen to some other companies, names many probably didn’t realize were part of the Big 3. What else could happen in bankruptcy? Parts. Millions of people are driving Big 3 cars worldwide. Bankruptcy could affect the availability of parts for cars that are still in service. While some other company would likely rush in to buy the remainder of the US companies, they may not have the same commitment or obligation to supplying parts for older models. So millions of people with their Cavaliers, Escorts, Neons, and so on may be forced to shelling out for a new car, even if they can’t afford it. A side effect of this will be an increase in ridership on city buses. At least every dark cloud has some silver lining.
Finally, in some defense of Detroit, they don’t make a bad product, it is a bit of a misconception. Most modern domestic cars are very reliable, and the smaller ones have excellent fuel consumption ratings for their class. I believe the Malibu recently beat out the Camry in several reviews, and those cars are neck in neck for gas mileage. Not like the gas guzzling Accords, Altimas and so on are much better on fuel. The Big 3’s reputation came from decades of an act that took forever to clean up, but they seem to have done so. If you don’t buy bottom of the line, build quality seems quite solid as well. Jetta’s feel just as “plasticky” and “cheap” as the Big 3’s offerings, and I have personally seen much newer examples (seen two) in the shop far more often with electrical problems than any domestic car I have personally owned or heard about through a friend. The Big 3’s problem was catering to the SUV craze, which the North American culture DEMANDED, for the longest time. They built big gas guzzling trucks and vans to be used by yuppies carting their families around, when station wagons or large sedans would have made much more sense. Also, they have severe management issues and contracts and pensions that are difficult to keep up with. The heart of the financial problems of the Big 3 is probably their high rate of pay, benefit packages, and retirement plans. With problems like those, they may never be successful in the long term.
I’m not saying Detroit deserves a bailout. Even if they get one, I hope management has to face the music and have their huge salaries slashed to nothing like the CEO of Chrysler in the 80s-that would be some fair. What I am saying is the loss of the Big 3 would have an effect on millions of people. The employees, the suppliers and their employees, the average people driving their cars, even those buying imports. Even if you buy Hondas or Hyundais, what do you think will happen when the lower cost competition is gone. Because like it or not, Cobalts and Avengers and Focuses keep the cost of Civics and Accents and Sentras down.
And how's that "Ford" doing, nearly 3 years later? 270,000 kilometres and still going strong, with not a rattle in the frame.
Thursday, October 30, 2008
American Election Next Week
Next Tuesday or neighbours to the south go to the polls. They face quite a challenge, with an ill advised war in progress, and their economy in the tank, this election could be the most important in recent history. The free world preys that they snap out of the mindset that they have been in for the past 8 years, and that their new leaders effect change.
Hopefully, their election turnout will be better than ours was up here in Canada a few weeks ago. I've said it before, I really do believe that those who neglect to vote should not be allowed to complain, as they are part of the cause of the current batch of problems.
I wish them luck and hope that January '09 will bring better fortune to their nation...
Hopefully, their election turnout will be better than ours was up here in Canada a few weeks ago. I've said it before, I really do believe that those who neglect to vote should not be allowed to complain, as they are part of the cause of the current batch of problems.
I wish them luck and hope that January '09 will bring better fortune to their nation...
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Nothing much to talk about this week
Nothing much to blog about this week. Maybe I'll get out this weekend and do a photo tour of the city in fall if the weather forecast is wrong.
My exhaust parts have come in for my motorcycle, but unfortunately too late to do me any good for this year. Still, for 75 US bucks shipping included for a part that Honda wanted 500 for, not a bad deal. Plus I'll have a new (well not new), improved, quieter machine in spring.
Anyways, I promise I'll have something to talk about next week. Just a bit out of it for a blog this one...
My exhaust parts have come in for my motorcycle, but unfortunately too late to do me any good for this year. Still, for 75 US bucks shipping included for a part that Honda wanted 500 for, not a bad deal. Plus I'll have a new (well not new), improved, quieter machine in spring.
Anyways, I promise I'll have something to talk about next week. Just a bit out of it for a blog this one...
Thursday, October 16, 2008
Fall nears its close
Well, another Thursday down. Not too many left in 2008, at that. First off, thank you to everyone who bothered to go out and vote on Tuesday. Even though turnout was at an all-time low, it is still important to participate in the process.
Fall is well underway, with trees starting to be bare. It is colder in the mornings every day now, even on our last few days when we've had decent weather (and yes, I have listened to the Beach Boys, so that's probably the last of the good weather folks...)
Surprisingly, I am content with all of this. Usually I hate the onset of winter, as it means snow, bad roads, cold, and just a generally uncomfortable commute, but I seem to be OK for now with time passing me by. I have my problems, but quite frankly, who doesn't have things they have on the back burner that need to be resolved? For now, my career is treating me well, and I am finding it fairly easy to relax. Now, if I can only crack this problem where I'm tired all the time, I'd be all set.
This weekend I intend to spend some time outdoors. With any luck, the weather will hold. I hope everyone has a good week!
Fall is well underway, with trees starting to be bare. It is colder in the mornings every day now, even on our last few days when we've had decent weather (and yes, I have listened to the Beach Boys, so that's probably the last of the good weather folks...)
Surprisingly, I am content with all of this. Usually I hate the onset of winter, as it means snow, bad roads, cold, and just a generally uncomfortable commute, but I seem to be OK for now with time passing me by. I have my problems, but quite frankly, who doesn't have things they have on the back burner that need to be resolved? For now, my career is treating me well, and I am finding it fairly easy to relax. Now, if I can only crack this problem where I'm tired all the time, I'd be all set.
This weekend I intend to spend some time outdoors. With any luck, the weather will hold. I hope everyone has a good week!
Thursday, October 9, 2008
The Economy, The Election, and The Arts
Global markets are in freefall, with the best example being Iceland, not long ago lauded for having the highest score on the Human Development Index, now facing possible national bankruptcy. The dream world we have been living in for some time, probably the better part of at least 20 years, is finally coming to a close, and it is time to pay the piper.
Environmentalists might be thrilled. Our increasing global emissions and carbon footprint have been the result of unchecked growth, Matrix-virus style, and this is a level of growth that most nations will probably be no longer able to afford. The US will have to swear off of Chevy Suburbans and Lincoln Navigators (at the very least). China and India, relying on selling their goods and outsourced positions to a rich west, will have to take a few steps back, and maybe we won’t be on track for 9 billion by 2050 anymore. And in the long run, from a strictly objective, non-emotional point of view, that is probably for the best. The only concern is that if this global crisis gets any worse, it might slip into another Great Depression. World War II ended the last global depression, but Albert Einstein’s statement about not knowing how World War III will be fought, but knowing how World War IV would be is still quite apt in this day and age.
Next week we go to the polls. I still remain unimpressed with every platform, but urge everyone to get out and vote. It is our civic duty, and I think that if you don’t vote, you have absolutely no right to complain when things don’t go “your way”. Please spend some time over the next few days actually looking at each party’s website and platform, and actually see how each of the decisions will affect you. Keep in mind that tax breaks affect different brackets differently, and actually take advantage of any calculators that the parties will provide to see how they affect you personally. Many promises are always broken after people get put in office, but we need to go on the information that is given to us. A solid evening of research is very little to pay to make an informed choice about how we want the next several years to go in this country.
On to the topic of Art. One of our current election cycle’s so called “issues”, all of which I find too trivial and trite to take notice of. Stephen Harper seemed to step in it when he announced that funding for artisan grants was going to be cut by $45 million. Critics have said that these cuts will force emerging artists to compromise their creativity and take lesser jobs that may not foster cultural advancement. While that is merely a paraphrase of the argument, it is one I have seen coming from everyone from Margaret Atwood to Gilles Duceppe, the Bloc leader. Facebook groups and grass roots protests have popped up everywhere, and ultimately, Harper has promised to reverse his decision.
I support arts and culture fully. Anyone who has seen my film and music collection first hand would have a hard time arguing that point. I have larger collections than many artists I know, and I tend to put my money where my mouth is. I even support Canadian content fairly often. I own all five seasons of Andromeda on DVD, and buy Canadian music when it catches my ear. I’ve gone to live concerts in Canada, and my attendance at Hip and Great Big Sea events easily outnumbers the time I’ve seen American acts in person. I’m also not going to argue that grant money no doubt does generate Canadian content, and am not arguing that by itself, that is a bad thing.
A lot of people, including many of my close friends, will no doubt by surprised by my reaction not to the initial announcement, but to the protests themselves. It has been some time since I’ve seen this type of whining and a sense of self-entitlement, and it is appalling, and should by rights be beneath the “cultured” people who were at risk of being disenfranchised, as they claim to know what’s best for our culture and society. The sense of entitlement and “tiers” of society that they believe in can easily be seen.
I would have loved to sit in front of a computer and test video games for a living. Would have been one fun job. Video games arguably foster an INTERNATIONAL community, as many games these days are played online with people from around the globe. They also help train hand-eye co-ordination and help with problem solving and math skills. They have a valuable place in our entertainment industry. As someone in the computer field, I could have insisted in that job, and that job alone. Where is my grant, and a grant for computer nerds countrywide? Since there were no tax dollars being dispensed to subsidize testing Canadian video games, I and many other CS graduates had to “cheapen” ourselves and get jobs fixing workstations and servers in offices all across the country. God forbid. Real jobs that are slightly less creative than the ideal. My career is great, but it COULD have been more entertaining.
I’m sure many independent auto enthusiasts would appreciate grants to put money in their machines for competition. Racetracks have been part of culture and entertainment since the invention of the horseless carriage, where is their funding? I don’t see “Solidarity for government grants to rice-burners” groups popping up all over the place. Auto racing has a really high entry barrier, many professional drivers are millionaires already, and many people who have aspirations of becoming a race car driver when they are six end up working in a garage, fixing cars to pay the bills. Oh, the shame.
Would either of the above activities qualify for government grants? No. They never have. If you want to be successful in either of those fields, you have to be really, really, really good. I will reiterate, I support the arts, the best way I know how, with a portion of my paycheque. I also know that there’s a lot of crap out there. If you want proof that Canadian content has no business in film, watch the epic sci-fi “Cybercity” (may be hard to find, but a perfect example). Need proof for the music industry? Flip on the radio and give Nickelback a listen, trust me, you won’t be disappointed. My take on art and culture-if it is sufficiently awesome, it will pull in a steady income (unfortunately, many believe that Nickelback is sufficiently awesome for some reason, insert Bryan Adams if you’re a Nickelback fan). The funding that was almost slashed should have been far less important than new roads, bridges, or a safe water and food supply, and we obviously need to improve in all of those areas. If the artists can’t produce anything that’s pulling in a paycheque, they should look into related fields-advertisement design or perhaps radio or teaching.
A letter to the editor in October 8th’s Globe and Mail suggested that taxes are coercive, and that support for the arts should be an optional line on Income Tax forms. That is probably going a bit too far. I believe that art should be supported in the best way possible, paying for and appreciating content that warrants it. I have no qualms buying Canadian music and television/movies that I find enjoyable, and have no qualm paying to go to a museum or art gallery. The restoration of the grants is not a bad thing, as I am personally willing to pay for this. But to hear artists complain and moan about the potential loss of funding that we the taxpayers have been graciously extending to them for a long time? Maybe they should have done something more productive, like hold free awareness benefit concerts instead. There was one protest gala here in Ottawa, and I saw tickets for sale for it...maybe they could have given back to show what our taxpayer money is going towards? It would have made me approve far more than the continued assertion that the artists are far more important than us commoners that go to work every day, to pay the bills for the grants.
Environmentalists might be thrilled. Our increasing global emissions and carbon footprint have been the result of unchecked growth, Matrix-virus style, and this is a level of growth that most nations will probably be no longer able to afford. The US will have to swear off of Chevy Suburbans and Lincoln Navigators (at the very least). China and India, relying on selling their goods and outsourced positions to a rich west, will have to take a few steps back, and maybe we won’t be on track for 9 billion by 2050 anymore. And in the long run, from a strictly objective, non-emotional point of view, that is probably for the best. The only concern is that if this global crisis gets any worse, it might slip into another Great Depression. World War II ended the last global depression, but Albert Einstein’s statement about not knowing how World War III will be fought, but knowing how World War IV would be is still quite apt in this day and age.
Next week we go to the polls. I still remain unimpressed with every platform, but urge everyone to get out and vote. It is our civic duty, and I think that if you don’t vote, you have absolutely no right to complain when things don’t go “your way”. Please spend some time over the next few days actually looking at each party’s website and platform, and actually see how each of the decisions will affect you. Keep in mind that tax breaks affect different brackets differently, and actually take advantage of any calculators that the parties will provide to see how they affect you personally. Many promises are always broken after people get put in office, but we need to go on the information that is given to us. A solid evening of research is very little to pay to make an informed choice about how we want the next several years to go in this country.
On to the topic of Art. One of our current election cycle’s so called “issues”, all of which I find too trivial and trite to take notice of. Stephen Harper seemed to step in it when he announced that funding for artisan grants was going to be cut by $45 million. Critics have said that these cuts will force emerging artists to compromise their creativity and take lesser jobs that may not foster cultural advancement. While that is merely a paraphrase of the argument, it is one I have seen coming from everyone from Margaret Atwood to Gilles Duceppe, the Bloc leader. Facebook groups and grass roots protests have popped up everywhere, and ultimately, Harper has promised to reverse his decision.
I support arts and culture fully. Anyone who has seen my film and music collection first hand would have a hard time arguing that point. I have larger collections than many artists I know, and I tend to put my money where my mouth is. I even support Canadian content fairly often. I own all five seasons of Andromeda on DVD, and buy Canadian music when it catches my ear. I’ve gone to live concerts in Canada, and my attendance at Hip and Great Big Sea events easily outnumbers the time I’ve seen American acts in person. I’m also not going to argue that grant money no doubt does generate Canadian content, and am not arguing that by itself, that is a bad thing.
A lot of people, including many of my close friends, will no doubt by surprised by my reaction not to the initial announcement, but to the protests themselves. It has been some time since I’ve seen this type of whining and a sense of self-entitlement, and it is appalling, and should by rights be beneath the “cultured” people who were at risk of being disenfranchised, as they claim to know what’s best for our culture and society. The sense of entitlement and “tiers” of society that they believe in can easily be seen.
I would have loved to sit in front of a computer and test video games for a living. Would have been one fun job. Video games arguably foster an INTERNATIONAL community, as many games these days are played online with people from around the globe. They also help train hand-eye co-ordination and help with problem solving and math skills. They have a valuable place in our entertainment industry. As someone in the computer field, I could have insisted in that job, and that job alone. Where is my grant, and a grant for computer nerds countrywide? Since there were no tax dollars being dispensed to subsidize testing Canadian video games, I and many other CS graduates had to “cheapen” ourselves and get jobs fixing workstations and servers in offices all across the country. God forbid. Real jobs that are slightly less creative than the ideal. My career is great, but it COULD have been more entertaining.
I’m sure many independent auto enthusiasts would appreciate grants to put money in their machines for competition. Racetracks have been part of culture and entertainment since the invention of the horseless carriage, where is their funding? I don’t see “Solidarity for government grants to rice-burners” groups popping up all over the place. Auto racing has a really high entry barrier, many professional drivers are millionaires already, and many people who have aspirations of becoming a race car driver when they are six end up working in a garage, fixing cars to pay the bills. Oh, the shame.
Would either of the above activities qualify for government grants? No. They never have. If you want to be successful in either of those fields, you have to be really, really, really good. I will reiterate, I support the arts, the best way I know how, with a portion of my paycheque. I also know that there’s a lot of crap out there. If you want proof that Canadian content has no business in film, watch the epic sci-fi “Cybercity” (may be hard to find, but a perfect example). Need proof for the music industry? Flip on the radio and give Nickelback a listen, trust me, you won’t be disappointed. My take on art and culture-if it is sufficiently awesome, it will pull in a steady income (unfortunately, many believe that Nickelback is sufficiently awesome for some reason, insert Bryan Adams if you’re a Nickelback fan). The funding that was almost slashed should have been far less important than new roads, bridges, or a safe water and food supply, and we obviously need to improve in all of those areas. If the artists can’t produce anything that’s pulling in a paycheque, they should look into related fields-advertisement design or perhaps radio or teaching.
A letter to the editor in October 8th’s Globe and Mail suggested that taxes are coercive, and that support for the arts should be an optional line on Income Tax forms. That is probably going a bit too far. I believe that art should be supported in the best way possible, paying for and appreciating content that warrants it. I have no qualms buying Canadian music and television/movies that I find enjoyable, and have no qualm paying to go to a museum or art gallery. The restoration of the grants is not a bad thing, as I am personally willing to pay for this. But to hear artists complain and moan about the potential loss of funding that we the taxpayers have been graciously extending to them for a long time? Maybe they should have done something more productive, like hold free awareness benefit concerts instead. There was one protest gala here in Ottawa, and I saw tickets for sale for it...maybe they could have given back to show what our taxpayer money is going towards? It would have made me approve far more than the continued assertion that the artists are far more important than us commoners that go to work every day, to pay the bills for the grants.
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Winter Approaches
It's getting colder out there, a fact that anyone who has to walk, even if only to a bus stop, can quickly tell you. The leaves are changing colours quite well now, and I'll probably try to make it up into Gatineau Park to get some pictures sometime in the next few days.
This fall we contend with an election. In less than two weeks, we must hit the ballots. I'm not going to weigh in on our politics, as I truly believe that everyone should weigh the issues themselves and vote for whomever best represents them. However, I do think everyone should get out and vote. If you don't vote, then there's not sense in complaining after the fact. Too many of my generation just don't bother.
That's about it for tonight. A banal comment about it getting cold, and a reminder to go out and vote on the 14th. I've been keeping really busy, and haven't had time to think of anything clever or follow the news.
This fall we contend with an election. In less than two weeks, we must hit the ballots. I'm not going to weigh in on our politics, as I truly believe that everyone should weigh the issues themselves and vote for whomever best represents them. However, I do think everyone should get out and vote. If you don't vote, then there's not sense in complaining after the fact. Too many of my generation just don't bother.
That's about it for tonight. A banal comment about it getting cold, and a reminder to go out and vote on the 14th. I've been keeping really busy, and haven't had time to think of anything clever or follow the news.
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
All Kinds of Stuff
I'm all over the grid today, so will spend a paragraph on each thing that caught my eye recently...
The LHC is broken, and all testing delayed until April of next year while repairs are carried out. But in other big science news, SpaceX successfully launched their partially reusable rocket into orbit. They claim once in production, launches will cost 8.5 million a piece. Far better than NASA's 450 million for launching the Shuttle.
Today, the CRTC launched the National Do Not Call List. The website's at https://www.lnnte-dncl.gc.ca/, and while it has been very loaded all day, it promises to bring some much anticipated relief from telemarketing calls during supper. No, I don't want a preapproved Discover card! And no, I don't want to join Columbia House!
The market's kind've been in the suck the last few days. With the choice of falling stocks, or a 700 billion dollar bailout which causes inflation, which merely hides the falling stocks. This correction is long overdue, and unfortunately I think it has a ways to go before things get better.
Finally, Ryan Reynolds has managed to provoke the anger of nearly 3 billion men on the planet. The biggest mainstream media story in the last week is that he has taken Scarlett Johansson off the market. See, that's far more important than private investment in new technologies and the stock market, isn't it?
More Thursday....
The LHC is broken, and all testing delayed until April of next year while repairs are carried out. But in other big science news, SpaceX successfully launched their partially reusable rocket into orbit. They claim once in production, launches will cost 8.5 million a piece. Far better than NASA's 450 million for launching the Shuttle.
Today, the CRTC launched the National Do Not Call List. The website's at https://www.lnnte-dncl.gc.ca/, and while it has been very loaded all day, it promises to bring some much anticipated relief from telemarketing calls during supper. No, I don't want a preapproved Discover card! And no, I don't want to join Columbia House!
The market's kind've been in the suck the last few days. With the choice of falling stocks, or a 700 billion dollar bailout which causes inflation, which merely hides the falling stocks. This correction is long overdue, and unfortunately I think it has a ways to go before things get better.
Finally, Ryan Reynolds has managed to provoke the anger of nearly 3 billion men on the planet. The biggest mainstream media story in the last week is that he has taken Scarlett Johansson off the market. See, that's far more important than private investment in new technologies and the stock market, isn't it?
More Thursday....
Thursday, September 25, 2008
TV almost seems better this year...
Well, I've taken to watching TV in my old age. While Battlestar Galactica is on yet another one of its extended hiatus', there are a few other shows worth watching out there for die hard geeks.
1) The Big Bang Theory - Hilarious show if you are or hang out with geeks. Exagerrates OCD and other geek traits to the extreme.
2) Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles - I have mixed feelings about this one, as the Terminator movie franchise leaves very large shoes to fill, but season one was very good, and season two hasn't disappointed yet.
3) Knight Rider - Not sure how this will pan out. The inclusion of a modernized version of the original Knight Rider theme song is a step in the right direction though. The fact that KITT, now a Mustang, can turn into a Ford pickup truck at a whim is a little far fetched though...
This is a good change from years of television that have been filled with reality show after reality show. Survivor is on what must be at least its 8th incarnation, and quite frankly, it is tiring. Four or five years have past since American Idol brought us the genius of William Hung.
The time has come for real television shows again, even if you aren't a fan of science fiction or geek humour. Reality shows represent the height of laziness in television programming, the only genre that approaches it was the variety shows of the 70s. So I look forward to more new programming, of all types.
Or perhaps it is all bread and circuses, given to the masses to distract from the wars and ailing economies of many nations. But at least it stopped me from ranting about THOSE tonight.
1) The Big Bang Theory - Hilarious show if you are or hang out with geeks. Exagerrates OCD and other geek traits to the extreme.
2) Terminator: Sarah Connor Chronicles - I have mixed feelings about this one, as the Terminator movie franchise leaves very large shoes to fill, but season one was very good, and season two hasn't disappointed yet.
3) Knight Rider - Not sure how this will pan out. The inclusion of a modernized version of the original Knight Rider theme song is a step in the right direction though. The fact that KITT, now a Mustang, can turn into a Ford pickup truck at a whim is a little far fetched though...
This is a good change from years of television that have been filled with reality show after reality show. Survivor is on what must be at least its 8th incarnation, and quite frankly, it is tiring. Four or five years have past since American Idol brought us the genius of William Hung.
The time has come for real television shows again, even if you aren't a fan of science fiction or geek humour. Reality shows represent the height of laziness in television programming, the only genre that approaches it was the variety shows of the 70s. So I look forward to more new programming, of all types.
Or perhaps it is all bread and circuses, given to the masses to distract from the wars and ailing economies of many nations. But at least it stopped me from ranting about THOSE tonight.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Wow...and it looks good too!
This week, General Motors finally gave us the first glimpse at the Chevy Volt, a "hybrid" car that will be released in 2010. While this car does have a gasoline engine, it is only used to charge the batteries if they run low - the drivetrain is full electric, much like the much missed EV-1. While electric cars are really cars with very long tailpipes, offshoring their emissions to the nearest power plant, GM claims that the Volt will be able to drive 40 miles without recharge on a charge that costs as little as a cup of coffee (probably Starbucks, but at current gas prices, still a steal).
The real surprise of this is the Volt actually LOOKS like a tech savvy leap forward, unlike the current bland line of Impalas, Malibus and Cobalts which look like they are straight out of the late 90s. It's quite possibly the first hybrid I've seen that I wouldn't mind driving, and coming from a company that's as unoriginal as GM usually is, that says something. Perhaps they are not only investing in new technologies, but about to change their image in the car world.
Check out the upcoming Volt at http://www.chevrolet.com/electriccar/.
The real surprise of this is the Volt actually LOOKS like a tech savvy leap forward, unlike the current bland line of Impalas, Malibus and Cobalts which look like they are straight out of the late 90s. It's quite possibly the first hybrid I've seen that I wouldn't mind driving, and coming from a company that's as unoriginal as GM usually is, that says something. Perhaps they are not only investing in new technologies, but about to change their image in the car world.
Check out the upcoming Volt at http://www.chevrolet.com/electriccar/.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Bad times in the stocks
First Merryl Lynch is sold to the Bank of America, then Lehman Brothers’ files for bankruptcy. Today, JP Morgan has announced that it plans to build to buy Washington Mutual for next to nothing, and people are speculating that without US Government intervention, AIG will have to declare bankruptcy by the end of the week. If AIG fails, brace yourself. We’d be in for an unprecedented storm of epic proportions, perhaps exceeding the Great Depression of the 1930s in severity.
AIG is an insurance firm, not a lending institution, so it seems counter-intuitive that they have been affected by this financial crisis, and could affect us. Unfortunately, AIG is one of the largest insurance firms around, with more than a trillion dollars in business, and they invested heavily in assets backed by subprime mortgages. Since the loans are defaulting, its importance, and unsurprisingly, its exposure, has increased. Like most Wall Street institutions, they have been caught unaware, and their stock has paid the price, down over 90% since the beginning of the year, dropping to less than half of yesterday's worth before rallying on news of a potential Federal Reserve bailout plan.
What does this mean for us commoners on the outside of this financial game? Any investments held in mutual funds have the possibility for exposure, as many mutual funds invest in AIG (and the other firms that are collapsing at the moment). Prices on everything could inexplicably go up, as the Wall Street world “passes the savings on to you” so to speak, increasing the cost of credit (unavoidable at this point, or reckless to avoid it any longer). Companies will be forced to increase their prices, lest their liquidity dry up.
And it’s just Tuesday. I’ll try to get something positive for Thursday…
The market has been overdue for a correction for a long time, as I mused about nearly a year ago. Unfortunately for us, it is likely to be a big one. I just hope I wasn’t right when I mused that we could be looking at the beginning of a collapse much like the end of the USSR’s economy, because I haven’t stocked up on enough food and vodka for that yet.
AIG is an insurance firm, not a lending institution, so it seems counter-intuitive that they have been affected by this financial crisis, and could affect us. Unfortunately, AIG is one of the largest insurance firms around, with more than a trillion dollars in business, and they invested heavily in assets backed by subprime mortgages. Since the loans are defaulting, its importance, and unsurprisingly, its exposure, has increased. Like most Wall Street institutions, they have been caught unaware, and their stock has paid the price, down over 90% since the beginning of the year, dropping to less than half of yesterday's worth before rallying on news of a potential Federal Reserve bailout plan.
What does this mean for us commoners on the outside of this financial game? Any investments held in mutual funds have the possibility for exposure, as many mutual funds invest in AIG (and the other firms that are collapsing at the moment). Prices on everything could inexplicably go up, as the Wall Street world “passes the savings on to you” so to speak, increasing the cost of credit (unavoidable at this point, or reckless to avoid it any longer). Companies will be forced to increase their prices, lest their liquidity dry up.
And it’s just Tuesday. I’ll try to get something positive for Thursday…
The market has been overdue for a correction for a long time, as I mused about nearly a year ago. Unfortunately for us, it is likely to be a big one. I just hope I wasn’t right when I mused that we could be looking at the beginning of a collapse much like the end of the USSR’s economy, because I haven’t stocked up on enough food and vodka for that yet.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
The Return of Big Science - congrats to CERN and the LHC
Tonight's post is going to be short and positive, in an effort not to bore anyone with technical details. Yesterday, the Large Hadron Collider came online over in Europe. With it, scientists hope to recreate the conditions of the universe as it was milliseconds after the big bang. This could fundamentally alter the way we understand the universe, and is an amazing feat, if they can even approach success. The LHC will try to synthesize an early universe on a miniature scale by launching protons at each other at near the speed of light. When the protons collide, they will split into their fundamental particles, giving us a rare opportunity to study them.
CERN is doing something great here, as all of the money spent on this project is going to further our knowledge of the world we live in, instead of bombing people out of existence. I recently complained about lack of progress in the last fifty years, well this is one of the rare occasions that we move forward.
Congratulations to CERN on a successful powerup, and hopefully within a short time, the machine will start with experiments and discover something awesome!
Still won't stop me from buying a red crowbar though, just in case. ;)
CERN is doing something great here, as all of the money spent on this project is going to further our knowledge of the world we live in, instead of bombing people out of existence. I recently complained about lack of progress in the last fifty years, well this is one of the rare occasions that we move forward.
Congratulations to CERN on a successful powerup, and hopefully within a short time, the machine will start with experiments and discover something awesome!
Still won't stop me from buying a red crowbar though, just in case. ;)
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Coffee coffee coffee......!!!!
Recently released results from the Nurses’ Health Study from 1980 to 2004 have shown that drinking two to three cups of coffee a day can reduce your chance of death from all causes, but mainly fatal heart disease. The beneficial effects were most noticeable in women, but were also present in men as well. Yet again, health professionals have come full circle on an opinion of what is and is not healthy. I guess I’ll get my butt back on the caffeine, since all of a sudden, downing up to three cups of coffee (which is still quite a bit of caffeine) is healthy again.
Many of you no doubt know of my long standing love-hate relationship with caffeine. I spent years drinking Jolt cola by the bottle, then the canful when the format changed. I then drank a Starbucks’ white chocolate mocha every day before work until I realized this was a very expensive hobby. A number of times, I have been proud of kicking the caffeine habit, like so many smokers before relapse, and perhaps at times, my caffeine habit has been a little…excessive would be the word I use.
This is much like the continuous flip flop about one or two drinks a day being healthy. I think it’s almost at the stage where I start drinking two cups of coffee in the morning, and having one or two glasses a wine with dinner an evening. Would keep all the bases covered, wouldn’t it?
Regardless, this is good news for coffee drinkers everywhere, so I thought it would make a good Tuesday post. Enjoy your Timmy’s tomorrow morning!
In a science related note, the LHC goes online tomorrow. If the whole world is destroyed like the nutters think will happen – farewell to all. Otherwise, brace yourselves for imminent awesome science! (Actually, unless you’re a science nerd, don’t even give it a passing thought, particle physics is kind of boring.)
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Infrastructure and a ‘Do Nothing’ Generation
An August 22nd article in the Ottawa Citizen brought to light what anyone driving a sports car with a stiff suspension has known for years. Our infrastructure, built in the 1960s and earlier, is starting to fall apart. The article said that the Institute for Research on Public Policy claims that our national infrastructure requires 200 billion dollars in investment soon, or industry will be adversely affected. This is 72 billion dollars for new investments, and the remainder to repair existing routes, facilities, and equipment. I started this blog post then, and abandoned it in favour about writing about John McCain. I will eventually talk about his VP selection, but want to get both sides of the story so I'm not so negative. Today, the Ottawa Citizen had another article on the problem, and I decided to wrap this little rant up.
While that 200 billion figure covers roads, rail, water, power, and pretty much everything else you can imagine, it is still a number that is absolutely staggering. This is what happens when you let things get out of hand. Think about it for a moment – when was the last time you’ve seen potholes go unattended for months on end, or railway tracks being removed? When was the last time you’ve seen new power towers going up? Not an individual telephone pole being replaced, but the huge backbone towers that actually feed cities? Even at that, when’s the last time you’ve seen telephone poles being replaced before they are entirely rotted out?
I hate to rail on the boomers, but I am really getting sick of hearing stories like this. In my 25 years, all I have ever heard is how things are breaking down and wearing out. There is a sense of complacency that has settled in that has literally stopped growth in its tracks.
The last major highway to be built in Ontario was the 416, completed in 1999 (but mostly complete in 1996). It is only roughly 100km long, and nothing has been built in almost a decade. Contrast that to the 401, completed to a minimum of 4 lanes in 1968. Our investment in our roads has been lacking. Electronic Fuel Injection, the most current method of getting fuel into an engine, was invented by Bendix Corporation in 1957 for the AMC Rambler Rebel, and became truly modern in 1982 when Bosch invented the Mass Air Flow Sensor. Even in aviation, the 747, first in commercial use in 1970, is still the most popular jumbo jet, only now starting to be replaced by the Airbus A380. Contrast that to the mere 12 year reign of the 707, the 747’s predecessor.
Space travel has long been seen as the source of cutting edge technology, having provided us with Velcro and Tang. But the space shuttle was basically designed in 1977, and first flew in 1981. It replaced the Apollo Saturn V rocket, which flew from 1967-1973. We’re only now looking at replacing the shuttle, and the Orion rocket they intend to replace it with admittedly harkens back to the Saturn V days, and won’t be ready until at least 2014!
The last nuclear power plant to come online in Canada is now 15 years old, with new ones just now being planned. The situation is similar south of the border. Wind generators have been refined technologies for many years, but we still don’t use them. Hell, Jimmy Carter had solar panels on the roof of the White House in 1977 – why are we still burning coal and oil for power, and why are most of our hydroelectric dams aging mainstays? There has been little to no investment in the power infrastructure in North America in at least 20 years, and all the talk of fixing it after the blackout of 2003 did little.
Politically not much has changed in the last while either. Look at 3 of the last 4 US Presidents, arguably leaders of the free world. Reagan, Bush I, Bush II. In the last 28 years, the United States has been led by Presidents that could have otherwise been interchangeable, other than the 8 years under Clinton. Even counting Clinton’s time, in almost 30 years there have been no visionaries, no grand dream of going to the Moon like Kennedy, no dreams of peace in the Middle East and clean solar power for everyone like Carter. Hell, even Nixon opened relations with China! Everything has been status quo except for the few brief times that Reagan sat down with Gorbachev to work out our differences with the East, and as I’ve covered in another post, he did almost as much to damage our relationship with the East in his term.
But what about computers? People will surely ask that question, and they are right to ask. Computers have advanced by leaps and bounds in the last 25 years. But there are two caveats to that statement. Despite all of the processor speed increases, most home PCs are still based on 8086-style chipsets. Technology that while much faster than, is still based on a chip released in 1978. The Internet, heralded as a lifestyle-changer worldwide, is evolved from the ARPANET, created by the US military in 1969. So even there, innovation has been lacking. Progress – yes, new radical thinking – certainly not. Dual core processors and 64 bit computing will not bring us any closer to AI.
Where are the flying cars? Where’s the free cheap power that will unite mankind? And most importantly, where are the killer sentient robots bent on destroying humanity? The future is here, now, and the first decade of the 21st century is almost complete. As a society, we haven’t thought of very much of anything in at least 20 years. You could argue that it’s not one generation’s fault, as some people in charge were older, some younger, but a more or less 20 year span is still that. 20 years is a generation, no matter how you cut it.
My generation is only now coming into its own. Hopefully for our own sake, we have among us some minds that are far more innovative than the ones that have been running the show for the last 25 years. We face the greatest challenge thus far, automating the care and maintenance of our infrastructure. Because after the boomers all retire, there won’t be nearly enough people to try to take care of this setup the way we have been – especially if we inherit an infrastructure that is more than half a century old and starting to crumble. As with the oil problem, as with the environmental problem, as with the Cold War’s nuclear stockpile problem, we will inherit their mess, once again. Our nice shiny Blu-Ray discs and flat screen TVs will do us little good when the power is out because the power plants have long since broken down, and you can’t get to the next town because the roads are a crumbling mess, and even if they weren’t gasoline will have long since gone the way of the dodo bird. In short, I think the 200 billion is needed. Maybe more, so we can avoid this problem in the future.
While that 200 billion figure covers roads, rail, water, power, and pretty much everything else you can imagine, it is still a number that is absolutely staggering. This is what happens when you let things get out of hand. Think about it for a moment – when was the last time you’ve seen potholes go unattended for months on end, or railway tracks being removed? When was the last time you’ve seen new power towers going up? Not an individual telephone pole being replaced, but the huge backbone towers that actually feed cities? Even at that, when’s the last time you’ve seen telephone poles being replaced before they are entirely rotted out?
I hate to rail on the boomers, but I am really getting sick of hearing stories like this. In my 25 years, all I have ever heard is how things are breaking down and wearing out. There is a sense of complacency that has settled in that has literally stopped growth in its tracks.
The last major highway to be built in Ontario was the 416, completed in 1999 (but mostly complete in 1996). It is only roughly 100km long, and nothing has been built in almost a decade. Contrast that to the 401, completed to a minimum of 4 lanes in 1968. Our investment in our roads has been lacking. Electronic Fuel Injection, the most current method of getting fuel into an engine, was invented by Bendix Corporation in 1957 for the AMC Rambler Rebel, and became truly modern in 1982 when Bosch invented the Mass Air Flow Sensor. Even in aviation, the 747, first in commercial use in 1970, is still the most popular jumbo jet, only now starting to be replaced by the Airbus A380. Contrast that to the mere 12 year reign of the 707, the 747’s predecessor.
Space travel has long been seen as the source of cutting edge technology, having provided us with Velcro and Tang. But the space shuttle was basically designed in 1977, and first flew in 1981. It replaced the Apollo Saturn V rocket, which flew from 1967-1973. We’re only now looking at replacing the shuttle, and the Orion rocket they intend to replace it with admittedly harkens back to the Saturn V days, and won’t be ready until at least 2014!
The last nuclear power plant to come online in Canada is now 15 years old, with new ones just now being planned. The situation is similar south of the border. Wind generators have been refined technologies for many years, but we still don’t use them. Hell, Jimmy Carter had solar panels on the roof of the White House in 1977 – why are we still burning coal and oil for power, and why are most of our hydroelectric dams aging mainstays? There has been little to no investment in the power infrastructure in North America in at least 20 years, and all the talk of fixing it after the blackout of 2003 did little.
Politically not much has changed in the last while either. Look at 3 of the last 4 US Presidents, arguably leaders of the free world. Reagan, Bush I, Bush II. In the last 28 years, the United States has been led by Presidents that could have otherwise been interchangeable, other than the 8 years under Clinton. Even counting Clinton’s time, in almost 30 years there have been no visionaries, no grand dream of going to the Moon like Kennedy, no dreams of peace in the Middle East and clean solar power for everyone like Carter. Hell, even Nixon opened relations with China! Everything has been status quo except for the few brief times that Reagan sat down with Gorbachev to work out our differences with the East, and as I’ve covered in another post, he did almost as much to damage our relationship with the East in his term.
But what about computers? People will surely ask that question, and they are right to ask. Computers have advanced by leaps and bounds in the last 25 years. But there are two caveats to that statement. Despite all of the processor speed increases, most home PCs are still based on 8086-style chipsets. Technology that while much faster than, is still based on a chip released in 1978. The Internet, heralded as a lifestyle-changer worldwide, is evolved from the ARPANET, created by the US military in 1969. So even there, innovation has been lacking. Progress – yes, new radical thinking – certainly not. Dual core processors and 64 bit computing will not bring us any closer to AI.
Where are the flying cars? Where’s the free cheap power that will unite mankind? And most importantly, where are the killer sentient robots bent on destroying humanity? The future is here, now, and the first decade of the 21st century is almost complete. As a society, we haven’t thought of very much of anything in at least 20 years. You could argue that it’s not one generation’s fault, as some people in charge were older, some younger, but a more or less 20 year span is still that. 20 years is a generation, no matter how you cut it.
My generation is only now coming into its own. Hopefully for our own sake, we have among us some minds that are far more innovative than the ones that have been running the show for the last 25 years. We face the greatest challenge thus far, automating the care and maintenance of our infrastructure. Because after the boomers all retire, there won’t be nearly enough people to try to take care of this setup the way we have been – especially if we inherit an infrastructure that is more than half a century old and starting to crumble. As with the oil problem, as with the environmental problem, as with the Cold War’s nuclear stockpile problem, we will inherit their mess, once again. Our nice shiny Blu-Ray discs and flat screen TVs will do us little good when the power is out because the power plants have long since broken down, and you can’t get to the next town because the roads are a crumbling mess, and even if they weren’t gasoline will have long since gone the way of the dodo bird. In short, I think the 200 billion is needed. Maybe more, so we can avoid this problem in the future.
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Election Fever? Maybe Election Sore Throat…
With an election almost certainly slated for October 14th, national news will no doubt start to focus on the campaigns. I expect to see a number of things brought to the forefront of our attention.
I would expect that we will no doubt hear about increased funding for the military and other security-related concerns. Our current commitment in Afghanistan will no doubt be debated again. I may write of that further when the debate rages, but in short, I believe history proves that we will be in Afghanistan until we lose the will to continue fighting, not the other way around. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear about terrorism again, and the pressing need to expand CSIS and the CSEs roll in protecting us.
The current listeriosis outbreak will no doubt be brought up at least in passing, as it has all the potential to turn into a talking point the likes of Walkerton. Government involvement in food inspection will be debated, as the administration HAD planned to offload this responsibility to the industries themselves.
It wouldn’t be surprising to hear about Global Warming, our commitments to Kyoto, and efforts to be “green”. While most high level leaders only have a passing knowledge of the environment, it is the latest fashion, so I would expect to hear about it. The usual topics will be discussed – renewable energy, the need to look at the wisdom of expanding our oil industry, carbon taxes, and so on. If we’re lucky, we may see an increased commitment to infrastructure improvements and public transportation.
There may be talk about restructuring equalization payments between the provinces, as Ontario is now a “have not” province in a full blown recession instead of the usual “have” status. I wouldn’t expect to see very much press on this, as I think everyone involved might want to keep the status quo quiet, so not to rile up the masses.
Do I expect it to be an exciting campaign? Probably not. The Canadian public seems apathetic, and hasn’t been discussing how eager it is to head to the polls. Both the leadership and the opposition have not presented a valid case as to why we need a vote at this time. I would suspect that if a majority government gets in, it will be by a very slim margin.
By the way – The new CBC Radio Two content is nearly indistinguishable from the cultural pop played on Radio One. Excellent decision making on their part (/scarcasm). On a brighter note, at least The Signal didn't get cancelled, so at least I can get my fix of techno/ambient music in the evenings.
I would expect that we will no doubt hear about increased funding for the military and other security-related concerns. Our current commitment in Afghanistan will no doubt be debated again. I may write of that further when the debate rages, but in short, I believe history proves that we will be in Afghanistan until we lose the will to continue fighting, not the other way around. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear about terrorism again, and the pressing need to expand CSIS and the CSEs roll in protecting us.
The current listeriosis outbreak will no doubt be brought up at least in passing, as it has all the potential to turn into a talking point the likes of Walkerton. Government involvement in food inspection will be debated, as the administration HAD planned to offload this responsibility to the industries themselves.
It wouldn’t be surprising to hear about Global Warming, our commitments to Kyoto, and efforts to be “green”. While most high level leaders only have a passing knowledge of the environment, it is the latest fashion, so I would expect to hear about it. The usual topics will be discussed – renewable energy, the need to look at the wisdom of expanding our oil industry, carbon taxes, and so on. If we’re lucky, we may see an increased commitment to infrastructure improvements and public transportation.
There may be talk about restructuring equalization payments between the provinces, as Ontario is now a “have not” province in a full blown recession instead of the usual “have” status. I wouldn’t expect to see very much press on this, as I think everyone involved might want to keep the status quo quiet, so not to rile up the masses.
Do I expect it to be an exciting campaign? Probably not. The Canadian public seems apathetic, and hasn’t been discussing how eager it is to head to the polls. Both the leadership and the opposition have not presented a valid case as to why we need a vote at this time. I would suspect that if a majority government gets in, it will be by a very slim margin.
By the way – The new CBC Radio Two content is nearly indistinguishable from the cultural pop played on Radio One. Excellent decision making on their part (/scarcasm). On a brighter note, at least The Signal didn't get cancelled, so at least I can get my fix of techno/ambient music in the evenings.
Thursday, August 28, 2008
The Press is the Enemy? Comments on an Interview with John McCain
Tonight I was going to talk about Infrastructure and how little progress we have made in the past 30 years in that area, but after reading this Time interview with John McCain, a man who potentially could become the next President of the United States, I had to change my plans. Take a few moments to read the interview (the excerpt in question is short - believe me, and the answers are very repetitive, so it’s a quick read).
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1836909,00.html
As an election in the US looms, and the direction of North America’s economy with it (I won’t kid myself into thinking that Canada is fully independent), it is important to keep track of what is going to happen. Right now in the polls, this man basically has a 50% chance of being the next President, so his policies and decisions could realistically govern the course of our economy for the next 4 years. Also, with an election almost certainly looming in Canada (the press expects an announcement within a month at their best guesses), watching how political maneuvering south of the border is working is wise – our politicians tend to be more moderate, mini-versions of their US counterparts.
In his interview with Time, McCain repeatedly told the reporter to refer to his books, that the campaign was acting as it had planned to all along, and that words were taken out of context. The short story is he stops answering questions, and starts quoting party lines. How he follows in the footsteps of Lincoln, Roosevelt, and Reagan, and how his current condemnation of Russia is similar to Reagan’s policies from the early 80’s (which I have discussed before). It’s as if he’s aware that the press is the “enemy”, and is not to be spoken with.
Falling back on party lines is hardly unexpected as the ballot day nears, but one thing McCain is right about. There hasn’t been this much “I don’t recall” going on in American leadership since Reagan was being questioned on Iran-Contra. His foreign policy will also no doubt be something any Reaganite could be proud of. But this press “lockdown” that he seems to be exhibiting now, after an earlier bid at claiming candidness, going so far as to naming his campaign bus the “Straight Talk Express”, is disturbing indeed.
If the people are not allowed to know the true positions of the politicians running for office, how can they cast an educated vote? Shall we expect the same here in Canada in the months to come? It has been said that politicians at the upper echelon, left and right, have nearly the same agenda, just different ways of sugarcoating the pill that middle and lower class citizens will have to swallow. A move AWAY from transparency is the last thing needed in a time when our leaders should be proving that adage wrong. While our parties tend to be a little to the left of American politics, I would hate to have to decipher who the best candidate is through a shroud like the one being raised in this interview.
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1836909,00.html
As an election in the US looms, and the direction of North America’s economy with it (I won’t kid myself into thinking that Canada is fully independent), it is important to keep track of what is going to happen. Right now in the polls, this man basically has a 50% chance of being the next President, so his policies and decisions could realistically govern the course of our economy for the next 4 years. Also, with an election almost certainly looming in Canada (the press expects an announcement within a month at their best guesses), watching how political maneuvering south of the border is working is wise – our politicians tend to be more moderate, mini-versions of their US counterparts.
In his interview with Time, McCain repeatedly told the reporter to refer to his books, that the campaign was acting as it had planned to all along, and that words were taken out of context. The short story is he stops answering questions, and starts quoting party lines. How he follows in the footsteps of Lincoln, Roosevelt, and Reagan, and how his current condemnation of Russia is similar to Reagan’s policies from the early 80’s (which I have discussed before). It’s as if he’s aware that the press is the “enemy”, and is not to be spoken with.
Falling back on party lines is hardly unexpected as the ballot day nears, but one thing McCain is right about. There hasn’t been this much “I don’t recall” going on in American leadership since Reagan was being questioned on Iran-Contra. His foreign policy will also no doubt be something any Reaganite could be proud of. But this press “lockdown” that he seems to be exhibiting now, after an earlier bid at claiming candidness, going so far as to naming his campaign bus the “Straight Talk Express”, is disturbing indeed.
If the people are not allowed to know the true positions of the politicians running for office, how can they cast an educated vote? Shall we expect the same here in Canada in the months to come? It has been said that politicians at the upper echelon, left and right, have nearly the same agenda, just different ways of sugarcoating the pill that middle and lower class citizens will have to swallow. A move AWAY from transparency is the last thing needed in a time when our leaders should be proving that adage wrong. While our parties tend to be a little to the left of American politics, I would hate to have to decipher who the best candidate is through a shroud like the one being raised in this interview.
Tuesday, August 26, 2008
The Demise of Radio Two
On September 2nd of this year, CBC will undertake a massive remodelling of Radio Two, probably changing the name of the station to “The New Two” in the process. They are going to drastically cut back on classical content, and try to market themselves to younger listeners with more pop and cross-cultural music. I like many people, think this is a drastic mistake.
CBC does not have a history, on Radio Two or Radio One, of having a knowledge of pop music. Their current segments are filled with dren that I wouldn’t want to listen to, and I listen to almost anything. Radio Two’s forays in electronic and techno music were interesting, but not very well marketed at all. I’m not sure CBC has a company culture that will work for this proposed format shift.
Secondly, in my travels across Ontario and Quebec, I’ve noticed that Radio Two only has decent reception in areas that are saturated with pop radio stations – Ottawa, Peterborough, Toronto. CBC will face still competition in those markets, with many stations that not only have an established listening base, but know how to market pop and hip hop better. I honestly doubt that the CBC is going to hire scantily clad young women to make appearances at local clubs and bars to market the station, like Hot 89.9.
Not saying they don’t know what they’re doing, but I wish that CBC would concentrate on what they know how to do. The loss of Radio Two is the loss of a classical music market, which may be a niche in this modern age, but is a niche that I was glad to see filled by someone.
CBC does not have a history, on Radio Two or Radio One, of having a knowledge of pop music. Their current segments are filled with dren that I wouldn’t want to listen to, and I listen to almost anything. Radio Two’s forays in electronic and techno music were interesting, but not very well marketed at all. I’m not sure CBC has a company culture that will work for this proposed format shift.
Secondly, in my travels across Ontario and Quebec, I’ve noticed that Radio Two only has decent reception in areas that are saturated with pop radio stations – Ottawa, Peterborough, Toronto. CBC will face still competition in those markets, with many stations that not only have an established listening base, but know how to market pop and hip hop better. I honestly doubt that the CBC is going to hire scantily clad young women to make appearances at local clubs and bars to market the station, like Hot 89.9.
Not saying they don’t know what they’re doing, but I wish that CBC would concentrate on what they know how to do. The loss of Radio Two is the loss of a classical music market, which may be a niche in this modern age, but is a niche that I was glad to see filled by someone.
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Still a long way to go
Well this is it, tomorrow when I wake up, I’ll be 25 years old, an age that has been a personal marker for me for the longest time, all the way back to the 9th grade when I started joking that I was going to live fast and dangerously, and die by 25. A quarter century is a long time, and I’ve done a lot.
Looking back, I’ve learned how to fly gliders, then airplanes. I’ve gone through three cars in seven years, and three jobs lasting at least two years each, on my fourth, the second in what is proving to be a career. I finished writing two novels, and while they may never get published, the satisfaction of writing a story that spans almost a thousand pages is immense. On a whim, I went out and learned how to drive a motorcycle. I’ve now had two apartments, and moved out more than two and a half years ago. Lastly, I’ve kept in touch with many good friends, turning the whole province into one big town as we spread out. Through parties and BBQs, things have been fun.
Did I live fast and dangerously and die out? I guess not. You could argue that he planes and motorcycle are riskier than most, in fact I have friends that scared of the entire concept, and others that I suspect are and are unwilling to admit it. But those hobbies are hardly jumping through rings of fire or anything like that.
I still have an awful lot to do though. I feel that my next priority should be my relationships, both with my circle of friends now, and new people. I’ve spent too much of my time in the last 7 years building up my career and material possessions, it’s time for to work on social interaction. I also want to advance up the pike in my field, maybe even get to a management level someday. Do I feel a little older? Yes, I suppose. 25 is not 18, and it’s amazing how quickly life has been moving by since the end of high school. Do I feel old? Not yet, I’m glad to say.
But perhaps there’s some truth to my statement back in high school after all. Am I the same kid that looked in the mirror every morning back in 1998? Not really – it would be hard pressed to say that anyone is the same after that much time has passed. Maybe that’s part of getting older, constantly reinventing oneself as life changes.
Looking back, I’ve learned how to fly gliders, then airplanes. I’ve gone through three cars in seven years, and three jobs lasting at least two years each, on my fourth, the second in what is proving to be a career. I finished writing two novels, and while they may never get published, the satisfaction of writing a story that spans almost a thousand pages is immense. On a whim, I went out and learned how to drive a motorcycle. I’ve now had two apartments, and moved out more than two and a half years ago. Lastly, I’ve kept in touch with many good friends, turning the whole province into one big town as we spread out. Through parties and BBQs, things have been fun.
Did I live fast and dangerously and die out? I guess not. You could argue that he planes and motorcycle are riskier than most, in fact I have friends that scared of the entire concept, and others that I suspect are and are unwilling to admit it. But those hobbies are hardly jumping through rings of fire or anything like that.
I still have an awful lot to do though. I feel that my next priority should be my relationships, both with my circle of friends now, and new people. I’ve spent too much of my time in the last 7 years building up my career and material possessions, it’s time for to work on social interaction. I also want to advance up the pike in my field, maybe even get to a management level someday. Do I feel a little older? Yes, I suppose. 25 is not 18, and it’s amazing how quickly life has been moving by since the end of high school. Do I feel old? Not yet, I’m glad to say.
But perhaps there’s some truth to my statement back in high school after all. Am I the same kid that looked in the mirror every morning back in 1998? Not really – it would be hard pressed to say that anyone is the same after that much time has passed. Maybe that’s part of getting older, constantly reinventing oneself as life changes.
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Poland Missile Deal - Déjà vu
Russia is mad about the US’ missile deal with Poland, signed today. For good reason, and one that fires up my déjà vu gland, as history has a nearly parallel example of this setup. The US has signed a deal with Poland to base 10 interceptor missiles in their country. The missiles are designed to shoot down nuclear-armed ICBMs, essentially bringing Reagan’s Star Wars dreams to life, except based on land. When completed, missiles and radar sites around the world will create a defensive missile shield for the United States, with the intent of shooting down a nuclear attack. The missile system is slated to come online in 2012. Russia has said Poland has left itself fair game for an attack with this deal.
The United States has claimed that these missiles are purely defensive, and are intended to guard the US from a nuclear attack from terrorists or a rogue nation. This is a transparent, bald faced lie. At best, it is yet another example of the Military Industrial complex sucking money from US citizens. At worst, it is a move towards more global control and empire building. Rogue nations don’t have ICBM arsenals, they have IRBMs and smaller scud-type systems. To build an ICBM that works at all requires a great level of technical sophistication, ICBM research was the basis for starting the space program, and any missile advanced enough to accurately target someone on the other side of the world could easily launch satellites and people into space. The US has already proven that they’re more than willing to blast a nation back into the Stone Age if they perceive them to even be remotely a threat, or have weapons capable of harming their interests.
Terrorists simply wouldn’t bother attacking that way. It would be far easier to exploit a hole in the current US security setup to get a WMD in. Of course, such an action would require acquiring a WMD in the first place, and despite what they show in James Bond films, one doesn’t simply hijack a jet bomber and crash it, then steal the weapons. Austin Powers demonstrated how ridiculous that motif is.
Lastly, most of the planned missile sites are pointed at Russia…erm, sorry, the official line is the Middle East. They must be talking about the upper Middle East though, because last I checked, Poland was a little far from Iran, but very close to Russia.
There are two historical precedents for this type of behaviour, one very well known by our parents’ and grandparents’ generation, and one that was brushed over in the media.
In 1962, the Soviet Union deployed nuclear armed IRBMs in Cuba, a mere 90 miles of the US coastline. This brought the world to the brink of nuclear war, tensions escalated, the US Navy blockaded the country, and Russian forces shot down a U2 spy plane. People thought we were about done as a society, and if it hadn’t have been for some common sense on the part of Kennedy and Khrushchev, realizing that both sides would be obliterated, we almost were. Uncle Sam promised never to invade Cuba, and the bears graciously removed the missile sites. Kennedy also secretly assured the USSR that they would remove their Jupiter missiles sites from Turkey, a quid pro quo deal. Arguably all nuclear missiles are defensive in nature, as the use of one in actual combat heralds the apocalypse with in hours. The United States didn’t take too kindly to the threat.
In the 1980s, a more complex situation existed. The US was preparing a new model of missile, the Pershing II, for deployment in West Germany to counter Soviet SS-20 missiles. These weapons would be close enough to Russia to strike their targets in 4 to 6 minutes, or barely any time at all. Reagan was also trumpeting his 600 ship Navy plan, which involved modernizing and re-commissioning all 4 Iowa class battleships, and building the US Navy to levels that would overwhelm the Soviet counterpart. Finally, Reagan’s greatest military boondoggle, the Strategic Defense Initiative, known as Star Wars, was in full R & D. SDI was the direct ancestor of today’s Missile Defense Shield. The idea was to shield the US from nuclear attack with a network of ground to air missiles, lasers, and space based systems. Sound familiar? The Soviets were scared of these things combined, and for good reason. One of the most obvious reasons for there still not have been a nuclear war since the 1950s is that both sides would be mutually annihilated in the battle. Mutually Assured Destruction, known for the past 30 or 40 years as MAD, was the common stance policy in the 1980s when Reagan kicked off his military buildup. If one side could successfully defend themselves from nuclear attack, much like a kid hopped up on too much caffeine could in the 1980s at the arcade playing Missile Defense, then nuclear war came one step closer to a reality, because in theory, you could “win”.
That is why the Russian supposedly panicked in November of 1983, when the Able Archer exercise simulated the lead up to nuclear war, involving western political leaders and the military. They thought it could be real, or a ruse that would lead to a sneak strike – with the latest American bluster, it was believed the Americans thought they could win a limited nuclear war.
The missile signing deal today brings us one step closer to the brink. What if the Russians decide to strike before 2012, in order not to lose their nuclear advantage? No one will be left to complain that it wasn’t the right choice. With the ongoing conflict in Georgia, in which Russia announced that they are withdrawing, but tanks have been seen still rolling deeper into the country, and Bush’s continuing war in Iraq, it almost seems like the intro to Fallout was bang on the money – World War III will be fought over oil and uranium, as we squabble over who gets the last bit. Funny to think that more that roughly 18 years after the end of the Cold War, tensions between East and West are beginning to build again, although this time we aren’t in a conflict of ideologies, we’re in a race to see who can build the biggest, baddest sphere of influence with the most resources. Détente indeed.
The United States has claimed that these missiles are purely defensive, and are intended to guard the US from a nuclear attack from terrorists or a rogue nation. This is a transparent, bald faced lie. At best, it is yet another example of the Military Industrial complex sucking money from US citizens. At worst, it is a move towards more global control and empire building. Rogue nations don’t have ICBM arsenals, they have IRBMs and smaller scud-type systems. To build an ICBM that works at all requires a great level of technical sophistication, ICBM research was the basis for starting the space program, and any missile advanced enough to accurately target someone on the other side of the world could easily launch satellites and people into space. The US has already proven that they’re more than willing to blast a nation back into the Stone Age if they perceive them to even be remotely a threat, or have weapons capable of harming their interests.
Terrorists simply wouldn’t bother attacking that way. It would be far easier to exploit a hole in the current US security setup to get a WMD in. Of course, such an action would require acquiring a WMD in the first place, and despite what they show in James Bond films, one doesn’t simply hijack a jet bomber and crash it, then steal the weapons. Austin Powers demonstrated how ridiculous that motif is.
Lastly, most of the planned missile sites are pointed at Russia…erm, sorry, the official line is the Middle East. They must be talking about the upper Middle East though, because last I checked, Poland was a little far from Iran, but very close to Russia.
There are two historical precedents for this type of behaviour, one very well known by our parents’ and grandparents’ generation, and one that was brushed over in the media.
In 1962, the Soviet Union deployed nuclear armed IRBMs in Cuba, a mere 90 miles of the US coastline. This brought the world to the brink of nuclear war, tensions escalated, the US Navy blockaded the country, and Russian forces shot down a U2 spy plane. People thought we were about done as a society, and if it hadn’t have been for some common sense on the part of Kennedy and Khrushchev, realizing that both sides would be obliterated, we almost were. Uncle Sam promised never to invade Cuba, and the bears graciously removed the missile sites. Kennedy also secretly assured the USSR that they would remove their Jupiter missiles sites from Turkey, a quid pro quo deal. Arguably all nuclear missiles are defensive in nature, as the use of one in actual combat heralds the apocalypse with in hours. The United States didn’t take too kindly to the threat.
In the 1980s, a more complex situation existed. The US was preparing a new model of missile, the Pershing II, for deployment in West Germany to counter Soviet SS-20 missiles. These weapons would be close enough to Russia to strike their targets in 4 to 6 minutes, or barely any time at all. Reagan was also trumpeting his 600 ship Navy plan, which involved modernizing and re-commissioning all 4 Iowa class battleships, and building the US Navy to levels that would overwhelm the Soviet counterpart. Finally, Reagan’s greatest military boondoggle, the Strategic Defense Initiative, known as Star Wars, was in full R & D. SDI was the direct ancestor of today’s Missile Defense Shield. The idea was to shield the US from nuclear attack with a network of ground to air missiles, lasers, and space based systems. Sound familiar? The Soviets were scared of these things combined, and for good reason. One of the most obvious reasons for there still not have been a nuclear war since the 1950s is that both sides would be mutually annihilated in the battle. Mutually Assured Destruction, known for the past 30 or 40 years as MAD, was the common stance policy in the 1980s when Reagan kicked off his military buildup. If one side could successfully defend themselves from nuclear attack, much like a kid hopped up on too much caffeine could in the 1980s at the arcade playing Missile Defense, then nuclear war came one step closer to a reality, because in theory, you could “win”.
That is why the Russian supposedly panicked in November of 1983, when the Able Archer exercise simulated the lead up to nuclear war, involving western political leaders and the military. They thought it could be real, or a ruse that would lead to a sneak strike – with the latest American bluster, it was believed the Americans thought they could win a limited nuclear war.
The missile signing deal today brings us one step closer to the brink. What if the Russians decide to strike before 2012, in order not to lose their nuclear advantage? No one will be left to complain that it wasn’t the right choice. With the ongoing conflict in Georgia, in which Russia announced that they are withdrawing, but tanks have been seen still rolling deeper into the country, and Bush’s continuing war in Iraq, it almost seems like the intro to Fallout was bang on the money – World War III will be fought over oil and uranium, as we squabble over who gets the last bit. Funny to think that more that roughly 18 years after the end of the Cold War, tensions between East and West are beginning to build again, although this time we aren’t in a conflict of ideologies, we’re in a race to see who can build the biggest, baddest sphere of influence with the most resources. Détente indeed.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Apparently not so Eco-Friendly after all
I’m all for saving the planet. It’s imperative, if not for our generation, then for the next, or the one after it. We in North America have been living above the world’s carrying capacity for a long time. One could argue that we are the least at fault, as we live in a vast area with many natural resources, and our continent’s population is a mere drop in the bucket of the globe’s, clocking in at a meagre 15% of all humans alive. We like to flaunt that we feed the world, our agriculture helping much more populous or poverty-stricken nations.
We’re still horrible polluters, with little to no excuse. Our public transit is a sham, we drive cars many sizes too large for our needs, and think nothing of waste. Why bother? There’s still plenty of land to build landfills on.
One thing that has to be kept in mind though is not to jump to quickly on board with new “greener” trends. Some of it is hype, and some of it is marketing nonsense. CFLs are a good example. When they came out, a few early adopters, myself included, went out and bought them as a green gesture, consuming less than ¼ the wattage of their conventional counterparts, they seemed like an intelligent and mature decision. Now we’re being told that the mercury they contain could be almost as harmful as the extra wattage that normal bulbs would have burnt. Is it a valuable trade off? I don’t really know. I haven’t tried to switch back, as I enjoy the extra light per-watt, and the fact that they seem to last much longer than regular bulbs – I’ve only had one burn out in almost 3 years.
The problem here is the government jumped on board with the “green revolution”, and has all but mandated that stores sell nothing but these new green bulbs. Are we setting ourselves up for pain further on down the line? For the same reasons that nuclear power should be considered, the mercury bulbs should be to. The pros and cons of any invention that has long-lasting hazardous waste associated with it should be weighed carefully, and objectively, before making a reflexive emotional decision.
I read recently that in most North American cities, the bus system is actually no better on a fuel-per-person-mile than cars, even cars with only one person in them. This obviously is a scale issue, but isn’t immediately apparent. In smaller cities, say under 200,000, there are a lot of empty or near-empty buses driving around in non-peak times. For public transit to be effective, it needs to be rolling all of the time on a consistent schedule, not just at peak hours. Diesel buses burn a lot of fuel, whether they’re loaded or not. Obviously in bigger cities, the networks are slightly less wasteful, as there’s enough people on them, or at least on a staggered schedule, to make the system worthwhile. I myself am a little guilty though – I can only think of a handful of times since I’ve taken the bus outside of rush hour.
I think we need to buckle down and start investing in new technologies, and doing what we can. Why do tractor trailers still only get 6, a figure they got back in the 1970’s? Where are LED light bulbs, a technology that was more or less ready years ago? Why are we still, in 2008, burning coal to power cities? These are questions that we as a society need to grapple with.
On a personal level, there are plenty of things we should and could be doing. When was the last time you checked the pressure on your tires? As derisive as the US media has been on Obama’s plan, he’s right. If tire pressure was kept up in every car in North America, the amount of fuel saved would be astounding. When was the last time you threw something out that was still perfectly useful, instead of keeping it or donating it to a second hand store like Value Village or Goodwill? My challenge to anyone that reads this is in the next week, do at least one thing that you wouldn’t normally have for the environment. I’ll strive for this as well. And maybe, if everyone out there did that, we’d be taking a step in the right direction. We must keep in mind that the rest of the world is industrializing, and with China’s and India’s industrial base transportation infrastructure growing exponentially, with 2.45 BILLION people involved, North America needs to step back and look at our own behaviour, and do our level best to curb pollution.
We’re still horrible polluters, with little to no excuse. Our public transit is a sham, we drive cars many sizes too large for our needs, and think nothing of waste. Why bother? There’s still plenty of land to build landfills on.
One thing that has to be kept in mind though is not to jump to quickly on board with new “greener” trends. Some of it is hype, and some of it is marketing nonsense. CFLs are a good example. When they came out, a few early adopters, myself included, went out and bought them as a green gesture, consuming less than ¼ the wattage of their conventional counterparts, they seemed like an intelligent and mature decision. Now we’re being told that the mercury they contain could be almost as harmful as the extra wattage that normal bulbs would have burnt. Is it a valuable trade off? I don’t really know. I haven’t tried to switch back, as I enjoy the extra light per-watt, and the fact that they seem to last much longer than regular bulbs – I’ve only had one burn out in almost 3 years.
The problem here is the government jumped on board with the “green revolution”, and has all but mandated that stores sell nothing but these new green bulbs. Are we setting ourselves up for pain further on down the line? For the same reasons that nuclear power should be considered, the mercury bulbs should be to. The pros and cons of any invention that has long-lasting hazardous waste associated with it should be weighed carefully, and objectively, before making a reflexive emotional decision.
I read recently that in most North American cities, the bus system is actually no better on a fuel-per-person-mile than cars, even cars with only one person in them. This obviously is a scale issue, but isn’t immediately apparent. In smaller cities, say under 200,000, there are a lot of empty or near-empty buses driving around in non-peak times. For public transit to be effective, it needs to be rolling all of the time on a consistent schedule, not just at peak hours. Diesel buses burn a lot of fuel, whether they’re loaded or not. Obviously in bigger cities, the networks are slightly less wasteful, as there’s enough people on them, or at least on a staggered schedule, to make the system worthwhile. I myself am a little guilty though – I can only think of a handful of times since I’ve taken the bus outside of rush hour.
I think we need to buckle down and start investing in new technologies, and doing what we can. Why do tractor trailers still only get 6, a figure they got back in the 1970’s? Where are LED light bulbs, a technology that was more or less ready years ago? Why are we still, in 2008, burning coal to power cities? These are questions that we as a society need to grapple with.
On a personal level, there are plenty of things we should and could be doing. When was the last time you checked the pressure on your tires? As derisive as the US media has been on Obama’s plan, he’s right. If tire pressure was kept up in every car in North America, the amount of fuel saved would be astounding. When was the last time you threw something out that was still perfectly useful, instead of keeping it or donating it to a second hand store like Value Village or Goodwill? My challenge to anyone that reads this is in the next week, do at least one thing that you wouldn’t normally have for the environment. I’ll strive for this as well. And maybe, if everyone out there did that, we’d be taking a step in the right direction. We must keep in mind that the rest of the world is industrializing, and with China’s and India’s industrial base transportation infrastructure growing exponentially, with 2.45 BILLION people involved, North America needs to step back and look at our own behaviour, and do our level best to curb pollution.
Thursday, August 14, 2008
$16,000 Scammer Gets Owned
As promised, a slightly lighter topic than global war for my next post back.
For the last few days, I have been following a post on a performance car forum, found at http://www.tamparacing.com/forums/general-car-chat/504615-attn-joe-dono-aka-scp_celica-scammer.html. In it, a young man named Joe is getting called out and destroyed for trying to reclaim his modified Celica from the shop while ducking $16,000 in labour.
To summarize the story, as reading the thread at this point would take days, and even though the amount of ownage that’s going on is amusing, it isn’t THAT amusing, Joe brought his base automatic Celica into the shop more than half a year ago, initially for a custom paint job. While it was in the shop, he kept adding things to it, custom audio setup, body parts, minor engine modifications, and so on. They kept doing the work, as Joe kept paying for the parts, insisting that his “sponsors” and grandfather would pay for the balance when completed. Apparently he claimed that his grandfather was “old school”, and wouldn’t pay until the car was complete.
Then came crunch time. The car was essentially finished, and apparently was signed up to be in a car show. Joe sent his mom to go pick up the car, not telling her that the work hadn’t been paid for. The shop refused to release the car. He then sent his girlfriend, who offered a $60 down payment to release the car, and asked to setup some sort of payment plan. Clearly, with the amount of money involved, they refused this as well. Finally, he called and asked them to wash, wax, and polish the car, and leave it sitting out in front of the shop.
At this point, the owner of the shop, Aaron, posted the situation on the message board, warning the board members that Joe was a scammer, and detailing the situation. This is where things got interesting. Aaron detailed that he was putting a mechanics lien on the car (which in my opinion, is for more than the car’s even worth). Joe posted on the board that since he didn’t own the car (his mom does, even though the man’s 20), and they were two months behind in their payments with the bank, that the lien wouldn’t do him any good, and to “mark my words, I’ll have the car by Friday”. At this point, the board, and then the Internet, exploded. First, people openly derided Joe, then arguments went back and forth about work orders vs. verbal agreements. At this point, people started posting links to the thread on other message boards.
Word spread. People jumped in, saying Joe had tried to scam somebody a year earlier on another car forum by trying to buy a 350Z with four credit cards that weren’t in his name. Someone else reported that Joe had sold them a $1200 MacBook Pro that turned out to be an iBook G4 with a dead battery. Someone else said that Joe had approached them about doing work to “his” Celica, but wasn’t willing to bring the car in for an estimate, only to drop it off to get the work done. It turned out that the man had been jailed before for fraud. People started picking apart his photo submissions, and found that many of the photos he had watermarked as being “his” photography were stolen.
The flip side of the story is the shop. They did $16,000 worth of work on word of mouth, investing all of their time working on the Celica, in effect spending both their professional and personal funds on it. The owners claim that without the payday of the Celica, the shop will be forced to close almost immediately, and they will be unable to make their mortgage payments or provide for their families. They are now accepting donations (at the prompting of the board members, not themselves) to go towards legal fees for the upcoming court battle to claim this guy’s mom’s car.
Joe is an idiot, and if 1/10th what has been shown on the Internet is true, is getting everything that he deserves. If you google his full name, threads talking about this attempted scam fill the entire first page. He’s done irreparable damage to his reputation, and perhaps he will finally learn a lesson from this experience.
But these shop owners have a lot to answer for as well. I understand the challenges of starting a small business. In fact, my understanding is exactly why I didn’t take my Entrepreneurship class’ advice and start my own. Things are tight for a long time, and more than half of all new businesses fail. There are two owners who are claiming that without this big “pay day”, their shop is going to immediately fold, and they won’t even be able to make rent so to speak. One has to look at this situation with a cold eye to see that this doesn’t make sense. My heart goes out to these guys in this situation, they have been screwed. But my mind does not, because let’s be frank - $16,000 is not a lot of money, especially not split between two people and a business. Rent alone on most commercial properties is well over $1000 a month. If they couldn’t afford to professionally take a $16,000 hit, let alone personally as well, then they’ve been managing their finances extremely poorly. That’s $8000 per person, even assuming the business was completely bankrupt all along. The pictures they showed of the car prove they do decent work, and the engine mods means they know about the mechanical side of tuning. Why weren’t they taking other jobs to pay the bills? Fixing rust, bodywork, oil changes, engine repairs, and so on.
While this is a classic example of a scammer getting his just deserts, it also demonstrates that a solid business plan and good organizational skills are needed to run your own company. The shop owners clearly had all of their eggs in one basket, dreaming of a big “payday” and the potential advertising windfall if the car was successful in the show circuit. They should’ve tried taking on smaller jobs to pay the bills and tell this Joe guy that his car was going to take longer, or be more realistic about how far they could financially extend themselves. I would like to think that instead of just horrible planning, they had lofty ambitions of being the new “it shop” in the area, and wanted to prove that they could do anything and everything, and customer satisfaction was first priority.
I think this entire situation proves that eventually, karma’s a bitch, and if you keep screwing people over, you will get caught. It also demonstrates that small business ownership requires a rock solid financial plan, and business partners should never EVER take money out of their personal finances to run the business, as it often leads to disaster. Everyone, on all sides, can and should learn from this.
For the last few days, I have been following a post on a performance car forum, found at http://www.tamparacing.com/forums/general-car-chat/504615-attn-joe-dono-aka-scp_celica-scammer.html. In it, a young man named Joe is getting called out and destroyed for trying to reclaim his modified Celica from the shop while ducking $16,000 in labour.
To summarize the story, as reading the thread at this point would take days, and even though the amount of ownage that’s going on is amusing, it isn’t THAT amusing, Joe brought his base automatic Celica into the shop more than half a year ago, initially for a custom paint job. While it was in the shop, he kept adding things to it, custom audio setup, body parts, minor engine modifications, and so on. They kept doing the work, as Joe kept paying for the parts, insisting that his “sponsors” and grandfather would pay for the balance when completed. Apparently he claimed that his grandfather was “old school”, and wouldn’t pay until the car was complete.
Then came crunch time. The car was essentially finished, and apparently was signed up to be in a car show. Joe sent his mom to go pick up the car, not telling her that the work hadn’t been paid for. The shop refused to release the car. He then sent his girlfriend, who offered a $60 down payment to release the car, and asked to setup some sort of payment plan. Clearly, with the amount of money involved, they refused this as well. Finally, he called and asked them to wash, wax, and polish the car, and leave it sitting out in front of the shop.
At this point, the owner of the shop, Aaron, posted the situation on the message board, warning the board members that Joe was a scammer, and detailing the situation. This is where things got interesting. Aaron detailed that he was putting a mechanics lien on the car (which in my opinion, is for more than the car’s even worth). Joe posted on the board that since he didn’t own the car (his mom does, even though the man’s 20), and they were two months behind in their payments with the bank, that the lien wouldn’t do him any good, and to “mark my words, I’ll have the car by Friday”. At this point, the board, and then the Internet, exploded. First, people openly derided Joe, then arguments went back and forth about work orders vs. verbal agreements. At this point, people started posting links to the thread on other message boards.
Word spread. People jumped in, saying Joe had tried to scam somebody a year earlier on another car forum by trying to buy a 350Z with four credit cards that weren’t in his name. Someone else reported that Joe had sold them a $1200 MacBook Pro that turned out to be an iBook G4 with a dead battery. Someone else said that Joe had approached them about doing work to “his” Celica, but wasn’t willing to bring the car in for an estimate, only to drop it off to get the work done. It turned out that the man had been jailed before for fraud. People started picking apart his photo submissions, and found that many of the photos he had watermarked as being “his” photography were stolen.
The flip side of the story is the shop. They did $16,000 worth of work on word of mouth, investing all of their time working on the Celica, in effect spending both their professional and personal funds on it. The owners claim that without the payday of the Celica, the shop will be forced to close almost immediately, and they will be unable to make their mortgage payments or provide for their families. They are now accepting donations (at the prompting of the board members, not themselves) to go towards legal fees for the upcoming court battle to claim this guy’s mom’s car.
Joe is an idiot, and if 1/10th what has been shown on the Internet is true, is getting everything that he deserves. If you google his full name, threads talking about this attempted scam fill the entire first page. He’s done irreparable damage to his reputation, and perhaps he will finally learn a lesson from this experience.
But these shop owners have a lot to answer for as well. I understand the challenges of starting a small business. In fact, my understanding is exactly why I didn’t take my Entrepreneurship class’ advice and start my own. Things are tight for a long time, and more than half of all new businesses fail. There are two owners who are claiming that without this big “pay day”, their shop is going to immediately fold, and they won’t even be able to make rent so to speak. One has to look at this situation with a cold eye to see that this doesn’t make sense. My heart goes out to these guys in this situation, they have been screwed. But my mind does not, because let’s be frank - $16,000 is not a lot of money, especially not split between two people and a business. Rent alone on most commercial properties is well over $1000 a month. If they couldn’t afford to professionally take a $16,000 hit, let alone personally as well, then they’ve been managing their finances extremely poorly. That’s $8000 per person, even assuming the business was completely bankrupt all along. The pictures they showed of the car prove they do decent work, and the engine mods means they know about the mechanical side of tuning. Why weren’t they taking other jobs to pay the bills? Fixing rust, bodywork, oil changes, engine repairs, and so on.
While this is a classic example of a scammer getting his just deserts, it also demonstrates that a solid business plan and good organizational skills are needed to run your own company. The shop owners clearly had all of their eggs in one basket, dreaming of a big “payday” and the potential advertising windfall if the car was successful in the show circuit. They should’ve tried taking on smaller jobs to pay the bills and tell this Joe guy that his car was going to take longer, or be more realistic about how far they could financially extend themselves. I would like to think that instead of just horrible planning, they had lofty ambitions of being the new “it shop” in the area, and wanted to prove that they could do anything and everything, and customer satisfaction was first priority.
I think this entire situation proves that eventually, karma’s a bitch, and if you keep screwing people over, you will get caught. It also demonstrates that small business ownership requires a rock solid financial plan, and business partners should never EVER take money out of their personal finances to run the business, as it often leads to disaster. Everyone, on all sides, can and should learn from this.
Monday, August 11, 2008
War in the former Soviet States - A Quick Glance
In my latest attempt at returning to semi-regularly updating the blog, I’m going to talk about the most important piece of political news in the last week, in my opinion. Not the opening of the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, which was impressive – but the war in Georgia.
Late last week, Russia sent 150 tanks, and many troops across their border into a region of Georgia known as South Ossetia. South Ossetia has being trying to declare independence from Georgia since 1992, shortly after the fall of USSR, and 70% of the population in the region holds Russian citizenship, voluntarily given by Russia over the past 15 years (arguably as a way to destabilize Georgia). The entire area only has 99,000 people, according to the 1989 Census, the most current. Some estimates, according to Wikipedia, place the current population at 62,500. This little war is being fought in an area with population roughly the same as S, D and G. Think about that for a moment, 150 tanks is a little more than excessive for this type of operation.
What triggered this whole mess was Georgia launching a military operation on South Ossetia on August 7, shelling their claimed capital city. Their authority to do this is questionable, but quite possibly valid – Russia itself has been quite adamant in their authority to conduct military operations in Chechnya, which wants to break away from Russia. Russia has responded by sending troops and tanks across the border, and bringing in an air component involving fighters and bombers. It is unlikely that Georgia will be able to “win” this conflict, especially in light of the fact that they’ve had to ask the US to help them get their force in Iraq back home to help with the fight. Russia may have stepped into a conflict that could drag out for a while though, as Georgia is fiercely determined to keep the territory.
What is very compelling is the fact that this, like so many conflicts in the middle east and asia, has the potential to go south very fast. Georgia has been trying to get into NATO for some time now, and they are one of the few countries that had signed on to the US’ “coalition of the willing” in the Iraq War. In the last few days, many are wondering where US support for their forces is, as a quid pro quo for their help in Iraq. This is a very dangerous tightrope for the US and the West to walk. Russia is still a very formidable power, if not re-approaching the status of superpower, to confront. The Cold War buff in me thinks that this war is something NATO shouldn’t and couldn’t afford to touch.
Towards the end of the Cold War, contemporary thinking believed that World War III would probably start with the Soviets pushing west into Europe. This would lead to a short bout of conventional fighting, which would quickly escalate to nuclear, as NATO forces would be overwhelmed by Soviet conventional forces. Faced with a much longer supply line, the US policy was speculated to be the use of low-yield, kiloton range tactical nuclear weapons over the advancing Soviet conventional forces. No one knew for certain what would happen then, but people feared the possible response – that the Soviet leaders would retaliate with nuclear strikes on NATO targets in Western Europe. This would lead to full scale war with strategic nuclear weapons, with several gigatons of power being unloaded on civilian targets worldwide. Arguably, this threat of mutual annihilation kept the Cold War contained to smaller wars by proxy for decades.
We still can’t afford to go to war with the Russians, for the same reasons. The United States military has proved that they can’t control Iraq, and to an extent, Afghanistan, even by throwing years and trillions of dollars at the problem. Georgia is right in Russia’s backyard, it is highly doubtable that the US supply line is up to the task, especially after more than half a decade of fighting elsewhere. US involvement in Georgia wouldn’t be a “war by proxy” like Vietnam or Korea, it would be a direct confrontation, US troops facing Russian troops, for the first time in history. Georgia does not have the manpower to accept training and equipment, and Russia is already directly involved. Luckily, logic would dictate that this scenario is unlikely.
Aside from worries of global war, which are practically unjustified due to the unlikely nature of the situations that would bring it about, there is another reason that this war in Georgia is alarming – location. Georgia is just north of the hotbed of the Middle East, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Also, a pipeline that runs through the country pipes 1 million barrels of oil per day into Western Europe. While a million bpd is just a drop in the bucket as far as oil transport goes, it will be a good excuse for oil companies to increase prices if this conflict goes on for any length of time.
In summary, war seems common in this area of the globe, and regardless as to who is at fault, we need to step back and look at things objectively. We cannot afford to get involved. The risk of escalation is too great, and it must be remembered that World War I was started with the assassination of a prince, and defense agreement pacts put the major powers in gear. The best we can do is hope that there is a quick resolution to the fighting. Georgia has already tried to declare a ceasefire, but it needs to be acknowledged by both sides, and something has to be done to diplomatically end this conflict. It is disheartening to think that in the 21st century, we are still a world that throws stones at its neighbours.
By the way, I promise to do something a little more light hearted and less politics/current events for my next post.
Late last week, Russia sent 150 tanks, and many troops across their border into a region of Georgia known as South Ossetia. South Ossetia has being trying to declare independence from Georgia since 1992, shortly after the fall of USSR, and 70% of the population in the region holds Russian citizenship, voluntarily given by Russia over the past 15 years (arguably as a way to destabilize Georgia). The entire area only has 99,000 people, according to the 1989 Census, the most current. Some estimates, according to Wikipedia, place the current population at 62,500. This little war is being fought in an area with population roughly the same as S, D and G. Think about that for a moment, 150 tanks is a little more than excessive for this type of operation.
What triggered this whole mess was Georgia launching a military operation on South Ossetia on August 7, shelling their claimed capital city. Their authority to do this is questionable, but quite possibly valid – Russia itself has been quite adamant in their authority to conduct military operations in Chechnya, which wants to break away from Russia. Russia has responded by sending troops and tanks across the border, and bringing in an air component involving fighters and bombers. It is unlikely that Georgia will be able to “win” this conflict, especially in light of the fact that they’ve had to ask the US to help them get their force in Iraq back home to help with the fight. Russia may have stepped into a conflict that could drag out for a while though, as Georgia is fiercely determined to keep the territory.
What is very compelling is the fact that this, like so many conflicts in the middle east and asia, has the potential to go south very fast. Georgia has been trying to get into NATO for some time now, and they are one of the few countries that had signed on to the US’ “coalition of the willing” in the Iraq War. In the last few days, many are wondering where US support for their forces is, as a quid pro quo for their help in Iraq. This is a very dangerous tightrope for the US and the West to walk. Russia is still a very formidable power, if not re-approaching the status of superpower, to confront. The Cold War buff in me thinks that this war is something NATO shouldn’t and couldn’t afford to touch.
Towards the end of the Cold War, contemporary thinking believed that World War III would probably start with the Soviets pushing west into Europe. This would lead to a short bout of conventional fighting, which would quickly escalate to nuclear, as NATO forces would be overwhelmed by Soviet conventional forces. Faced with a much longer supply line, the US policy was speculated to be the use of low-yield, kiloton range tactical nuclear weapons over the advancing Soviet conventional forces. No one knew for certain what would happen then, but people feared the possible response – that the Soviet leaders would retaliate with nuclear strikes on NATO targets in Western Europe. This would lead to full scale war with strategic nuclear weapons, with several gigatons of power being unloaded on civilian targets worldwide. Arguably, this threat of mutual annihilation kept the Cold War contained to smaller wars by proxy for decades.
We still can’t afford to go to war with the Russians, for the same reasons. The United States military has proved that they can’t control Iraq, and to an extent, Afghanistan, even by throwing years and trillions of dollars at the problem. Georgia is right in Russia’s backyard, it is highly doubtable that the US supply line is up to the task, especially after more than half a decade of fighting elsewhere. US involvement in Georgia wouldn’t be a “war by proxy” like Vietnam or Korea, it would be a direct confrontation, US troops facing Russian troops, for the first time in history. Georgia does not have the manpower to accept training and equipment, and Russia is already directly involved. Luckily, logic would dictate that this scenario is unlikely.
Aside from worries of global war, which are practically unjustified due to the unlikely nature of the situations that would bring it about, there is another reason that this war in Georgia is alarming – location. Georgia is just north of the hotbed of the Middle East, Iraq, Iran, and Afghanistan. Also, a pipeline that runs through the country pipes 1 million barrels of oil per day into Western Europe. While a million bpd is just a drop in the bucket as far as oil transport goes, it will be a good excuse for oil companies to increase prices if this conflict goes on for any length of time.
In summary, war seems common in this area of the globe, and regardless as to who is at fault, we need to step back and look at things objectively. We cannot afford to get involved. The risk of escalation is too great, and it must be remembered that World War I was started with the assassination of a prince, and defense agreement pacts put the major powers in gear. The best we can do is hope that there is a quick resolution to the fighting. Georgia has already tried to declare a ceasefire, but it needs to be acknowledged by both sides, and something has to be done to diplomatically end this conflict. It is disheartening to think that in the 21st century, we are still a world that throws stones at its neighbours.
By the way, I promise to do something a little more light hearted and less politics/current events for my next post.
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Two words: Fire Sale, or why I bought an HD DVD Player
Anyone reading this probably knows I have an obsession with dead audio/video formats. From my quad LP collection to laserdiscs, I have an eclectic taste in how I watch or listen to media. So not a single person should be surprised that as soon as Toshiba killed HD DVD, I went out and bought a new HD DVD player to go with my shiny new HDTV.
Why would someone who's tech savvy invest in a dead format?
Simple, economics. HD DVD's demise has led to a unique situation. For the past year and a half, Blue Ray and HD DVD have been pitted against each other, vying to be the winning 1080 media format. Now that HD DVD has failed, retailers are dumping HD DVD stock. Players are going for less than half price, sometimes for as little as $70, and movies have been marked down from $50 to $15. Soon those prices could drop even further. This equipment is still in high definition, still displays just as clear as Blue Ray (for all effective purposes), and still has a library of decent movies attached to it. Now's the perfect time to buy in HD DVDs. HD DVDs aren't like Beta tapes in the 80s. They won't decay just sitting on the shelf (or if they do, not nearly as easily). Disc medium is pretty tried and true, other than scratching, it isn't very often that discs give out. So if you're comfortable with having a high def collection that doesn't grow, it makes sense to buy into them. I don't have the money to invest in Blue Ray, and since the HD DVD movies are going cheaper than their DVD counterparts now, it makes sense to buy them while they last.
There is no guarantee that Blue Ray is going to be around for much more than 5 years anyway. 1080p is no longer the highest resolution television available, and both BR and HD DVD were limited to that resolution. The next generation of disc based media has already been demonstrated in prototype form. Known as the Holographic Versitile Disc, or HVD, it is able to store 3.9 TERABYTES of information, in comparison to BR's 50 GB or DVD's 8.54 GB. The technology exists NOW to replace an entire BR collection with a single disc. Who knows what five years more development will bring? Also, media's role in film distribution may even end, as studios shift to a digital mindset, offering high def downloads much like Apple's aspirations in the music industry.
So I don't feel like a "sucker" for buying the dead format. For the next little while, I'll enjoy movies in high def cheaper than on normal DVDs. After that, I'll go back to regular DVDs until the price on Blue Ray comes down to an affordable level.
Why would someone who's tech savvy invest in a dead format?
Simple, economics. HD DVD's demise has led to a unique situation. For the past year and a half, Blue Ray and HD DVD have been pitted against each other, vying to be the winning 1080 media format. Now that HD DVD has failed, retailers are dumping HD DVD stock. Players are going for less than half price, sometimes for as little as $70, and movies have been marked down from $50 to $15. Soon those prices could drop even further. This equipment is still in high definition, still displays just as clear as Blue Ray (for all effective purposes), and still has a library of decent movies attached to it. Now's the perfect time to buy in HD DVDs. HD DVDs aren't like Beta tapes in the 80s. They won't decay just sitting on the shelf (or if they do, not nearly as easily). Disc medium is pretty tried and true, other than scratching, it isn't very often that discs give out. So if you're comfortable with having a high def collection that doesn't grow, it makes sense to buy into them. I don't have the money to invest in Blue Ray, and since the HD DVD movies are going cheaper than their DVD counterparts now, it makes sense to buy them while they last.
There is no guarantee that Blue Ray is going to be around for much more than 5 years anyway. 1080p is no longer the highest resolution television available, and both BR and HD DVD were limited to that resolution. The next generation of disc based media has already been demonstrated in prototype form. Known as the Holographic Versitile Disc, or HVD, it is able to store 3.9 TERABYTES of information, in comparison to BR's 50 GB or DVD's 8.54 GB. The technology exists NOW to replace an entire BR collection with a single disc. Who knows what five years more development will bring? Also, media's role in film distribution may even end, as studios shift to a digital mindset, offering high def downloads much like Apple's aspirations in the music industry.
So I don't feel like a "sucker" for buying the dead format. For the next little while, I'll enjoy movies in high def cheaper than on normal DVDs. After that, I'll go back to regular DVDs until the price on Blue Ray comes down to an affordable level.
Thursday, January 10, 2008
Thoughts on the Western Economy
I read somewhere today, in an American web forum that "in a rational, tariff-free economy, we would be importing all of our food." This phrase was used to argue that supporting the rural infrastructure (postal, telecom, etc) was not in the best interests of society at large (ie urban society). The individual that posted this considered themself to be a Libertarian, which is a political philosophy that dictates that the market will decide what is best for everybody.
Being a Canadian, I shook my head and laughed at the mentality. Even though I'm not from the good 'ol US of A, I feel that I'm allowed to have an opinion anyway, as North America is becoming more and more like one big country every year.
If the US started importing all their food, they would completely collapse. The American economy has becoming more and more hazardous with every passing year. As the years churn on, the Americans manufacture less and less, and import more. It's now at the stage where anything worth having is made outside of the US. Cars, gadgets, even the raw materials necessary to produce goods are imported from foreign nations. If the US was no longer an agricultural nation, they wouldn't produce anything at all of consequence, and even the service industry is being rapidly offshored, with call centers in India being the norm.
North America, including Canada needs to take a collective step back and reassess what is going on in the world markets. Our economies have been catching up for a long time with what happened in the late 80's in the Soviet Union. As soon as the USSR no longer had the raw materials to support themselves, they had to turn to importing oil, and waging wars of agression in Afghanistan to try to secure oil. As the Russians weren't making anything to EXPORT to generate money to support the wars and mass imports, they eventually collapsed.
Now, the US has been importing oil for almost as long as the Russians. The difference lies in the fact for most of the time, the Americans were exporting goods, services, and innovation. Major companies like General Motors, Ford, IBM, RCA, Westinghouse, and General Electric were creating goods that were cutting edge and in demand worldwide. NOW, almost everything is made abroad, with names like Toyota, Honda, Siemens, Sony, Panasonic and Philips replacing the North American monikers at the top of the business food chain. America is still importing, but not giving anything back.
These days, America's only obvious export is "democracy", in the form of endless war and violence, a resurrection of the colonial atmosphere that they claim their country was founded to combat.
Still, we must all remember that when the Russians lashed out into the middle east, trying to secure natural resources, the "evil empire" was in decline, a mere 12 years away from collapse. The signs are there now-where will they, and by entension, we be in 2015, 12 years after the start of the second Iraq War?
Being a Canadian, I shook my head and laughed at the mentality. Even though I'm not from the good 'ol US of A, I feel that I'm allowed to have an opinion anyway, as North America is becoming more and more like one big country every year.
If the US started importing all their food, they would completely collapse. The American economy has becoming more and more hazardous with every passing year. As the years churn on, the Americans manufacture less and less, and import more. It's now at the stage where anything worth having is made outside of the US. Cars, gadgets, even the raw materials necessary to produce goods are imported from foreign nations. If the US was no longer an agricultural nation, they wouldn't produce anything at all of consequence, and even the service industry is being rapidly offshored, with call centers in India being the norm.
North America, including Canada needs to take a collective step back and reassess what is going on in the world markets. Our economies have been catching up for a long time with what happened in the late 80's in the Soviet Union. As soon as the USSR no longer had the raw materials to support themselves, they had to turn to importing oil, and waging wars of agression in Afghanistan to try to secure oil. As the Russians weren't making anything to EXPORT to generate money to support the wars and mass imports, they eventually collapsed.
Now, the US has been importing oil for almost as long as the Russians. The difference lies in the fact for most of the time, the Americans were exporting goods, services, and innovation. Major companies like General Motors, Ford, IBM, RCA, Westinghouse, and General Electric were creating goods that were cutting edge and in demand worldwide. NOW, almost everything is made abroad, with names like Toyota, Honda, Siemens, Sony, Panasonic and Philips replacing the North American monikers at the top of the business food chain. America is still importing, but not giving anything back.
These days, America's only obvious export is "democracy", in the form of endless war and violence, a resurrection of the colonial atmosphere that they claim their country was founded to combat.
Still, we must all remember that when the Russians lashed out into the middle east, trying to secure natural resources, the "evil empire" was in decline, a mere 12 years away from collapse. The signs are there now-where will they, and by entension, we be in 2015, 12 years after the start of the second Iraq War?
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